[25NLz] monotone flop TPTK NFD
Posted by _michael_
Posted by
_michael_
posted in
Low Stakes
[25NLz] monotone flop TPTK NFD
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players)
BN: $6.37
SB: $21.82
BB: $53.70 (Hero)
UTG: $31.97
MP: $25.35
CO: $23.28
SB: $21.82
BB: $53.70 (Hero)
UTG: $31.97
MP: $25.35
CO: $23.28
Preflop
($0.35)
Hero is BB with
K
A
, , ,
Flop
($4.50)
K
J
T
, ,
Turn
($6.50)
K
J
T
8
, , ,
River
($43.64)
K
J
T
8
K
Final Pot
SB
wins and shows a full house, Eights full of Kings.
BB lost and shows three of a kind, Kings.
SB wins $41.68
Rake is $1.96
BB lost and shows three of a kind, Kings.
SB wins $41.68
Rake is $1.96
I think I could have played this better postflop, flop and turn sizing may be poor and a check may be better, how would others play this? While his actual hand is weird he can have many credible straights/2pr/sets/flushes so I may be screwing myself on the turn, and I don't want to b/f this much equity.
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Flop is ugh. We don't have many flushes here compared to SB on these monotone boards all high cards. So we are not cbetting willy nilly. Because of this we should size up. 1/4th pot is insanely low here.
Turn can be a check back. What's calling us that's worse? KQ, QJ, QTs? That's quite narrow considering the amount of hands he has that beats us. This hand should go in a checking range.
When we do bet and get raised we need to call 13.60 to win 43.64 which would mean we need to win 31.16% off the time. If we consider Q and non pairing hearts to be winning then we have 11 outs or 24%. Doesn't seem enough does it and that's assuming we have all outs.
Especially this hand is rather bad as we block some of his possible bluffs with the Ah. It's hard to find bluffs in SB's range unless he is good enough to turn lower pairs with a heart into a bluff on this turn.
Agree with this for the most part. But im not quite sure about your thoughts on betsizing OTF. Tbh. this Board smashes our range still more than SB´s. I think we still should be valuebetting mergy here (I mean strong holdings but weaker than straight and flush). So IMO betting small with whole range should be fine. How would you proceed with your 2p/set combos here? Bet big/call?
I did a simulation for QcJcTc previously.
Stats are
3/4th: 25,83%
1/3rd: 39,59%
Check: 34,58%
So I guess AhK would go in the 1/3rd sizing strategy and the check on KhJhTh. Seems you are right.
Interesting thought on the flop sizing, thanks both. My default is 1/3pot or check for monotone, but I sized down because it should be hard for him to continue even for tiny bet with a lot of his range.
I am interested in which hands we should bet 3/4 pot with here.
This is the range for QcJcTc played by a solver. The blue is 3/4th pot, pink is 1/3rd pot, green is check.
For the big bet AA is with a club, ATo is with a club, A6s-A3s is mostly clubs. 97s is without a club. The lower pocket pairs is without a club.
So it considers blocking high clubs relevant for the big size but not blocking the low clubs.
Very interesting thank you lIlCitanul, so the larger sizing is more polarised but still somewhat merged. It will be difficult to get the balance right in practice, firing 3/4 pot with A2s, some baby pairs etc, but definitely possible.
It's impossible to simulate how solvers play in the moment. You have to look at these spots and then try to simplify for yourself.
Lesson I would pull from this is bluff with high flushdraw blockers and low pockets that don't have a flushdraw. And notice that Tx, despite having a piece of the board, are being used as bets.
Flop sizing smol looks perfect. Turn sizing sizing make it smol again. Villains calls with 88 and jamming the turn is completely awful spew as you will only be stacking off with only better made hands and high equity combo draws. If you can bet smol on flop and get under pairs like 88 to call then your printing money in these spots. It means population is calling too wide even vesus smol bets.
Thanks, I agree villain's play is terrible, and in hindsight small turn bet makes more sense.
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