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[25NLZ] Here's another spew

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

[25NLZ] Here's another spew

Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players) BN: $43.18
SB: $19.24
BB: $22.99
UTG: $29.48
MP: $25.58 (Hero)
CO: $34.40
Hi guys, villain is a reg who always 3bet with enormous sizings, and his stats are 22/17/9.1 over 1.6K hands. : 4betting him a lot seems to be the right play.
Preflop ($0.35) Hero is MP with A 4
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.75, CO folds, BN raises to $3.00, 2 folds, Hero raises to $6.80, BN calls $3.80
Flop ($13.95) 2 J 5
Hero bets $3.50, BN calls $3.50
Turn ($20.95) 2 J 5 6
Hero checks, BN checks
I have plenty of other draws to shove OTT. I would x my aces, sometimes kings and shove Queens here.
River ($20.95) 2 J 5 6 9
Hero
Villain's range is uncapped , and I gave him this range in game: 100% of :JJ-TT,AhKh,AhQh, 64% of :KK+ 54% of :AKo, 84% of :QQ. These percentages are based on the fact that he would take another line with some of these holdings either pre or OTT.

So my point is that by shoving, we need him to fold about 42% of the time. If he folds his Ace highs and TT, that is the case. So should we bluff here?

10 Comments

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frontdoorbackdoor 6 years, 5 months ago

His range is pretty narrow after calling 4bet and floating flop. Would expect him to call with Jx and QQ vs shove and folding most a highs but you block those. Part of me thinks villain is pretty capped here though, I would expect population to bet most strong hands on the turn so the check back range is quite weak. I think this is a spot you could overbluff as I don't see people heroing you enough with a high

Jeff_ 6 years, 5 months ago

If he 4bet/folds then 4betting a lot make sense. So what his fold to 4bet and 5bet freq? His range can be strong or mediocre (bluffcathers:some pp,AK,TT and few slowplays.)
I'd just give up and bluff AQ and some other hands with better blockers. But A4 is so low, bluffing it can't be terrible vs guy with weaker range. Maybe he just flats JJ+ vs 4bet, then our 4bet bluff is nice but shoving river burning money haha

GocceGocce 6 years, 5 months ago

When he has high 3bet and low F3B or F4B range linear 4betting can be better here. AQo, KJs type of hands. People usually have very narrow 4bet call range in this limit. And board is rainbow. With this runout bluffing make no sense for me. You can bet flop but 6 on the turn is bad card for our range. And little hot spot, usually people dont belive you have hand when you break action OTT. It means he can easly call you here with TT or AKs.

Wallmonger 6 years, 5 months ago

villain is a reg who always 3bet with enormous sizings, and his stats are 22/17/9.1 over 1.6K hands. : 4betting him a lot seems to be the right play.

I just want to chime in and comment this. A reg who plays 22/17 isn't going to attack you that often, or if he do, he's an outlier. Have you taken into consideration that your assumption are wrong. Namely, he's getting a good streak of cards and play his hand. I'm telling you this because the brain cannot understand frequencies at all. Many, many times, I thought an opponent 3bet me a lot while if I see his stats vs me, he doesn't do very often. Our brain is very tricky, be aware that you might adjusted in a wrong way only because you misread frequencies

Wallmonger 6 years, 5 months ago

I have about 300k hands imported and as you can see some regs deviates and clearly 3bet more than normal, while others don't. I can assure you, in game, all of them seems to target me, but in reality they don't.
You made me though about an idea, I'm going to build a stat that shows how many times villain 3bet preflop vs a villain who isn't Hero

ExiL97 6 years, 5 months ago

Does he fold a lot to 4b after 3betting? If not you're just creating a big pot OOP with speculative hand. I'd rather tighten a bit my openening range and 4bet a linear range

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