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25NLz - FD vs donk on Flop & Turn

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25NLz - FD vs donk on Flop & Turn

Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players) BN: $47.97
SB: $29.99
BB: $25.77
UTG: $26.03
MP: $45.51 (Hero)
CO: $14.27
Preflop ($0.35) Hero is MP with K 8
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.70, 2 folds, SB calls $0.60, BB folds
Flop ($1.65) 7 9 A
SB bets $0.79, Hero calls $0.79
Turn ($3.23) 7 9 A 6
SB bets $1.54, Hero calls $1.54

Is it profitable to call twice here?

I'd assume he'll mainly be donking with sets/2 pair. So on the turn we have the right odds to call 1/2 pot with over 30% equity against 77, 99, 79, A7, A9. We can also raise most spade rivers. 9s & 6s just a call?

5 Comments

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augballer88 5 years, 2 months ago

yeah absolutely. you're getting direct odds to peel, in position, with implied odds. villain appears to be a rec since he shouldn't be leading that board so he'll pay you off more often when you hit. you could find a raise at some point as well at some frequency. villain could easily be donking with worse than 2pair+ (unless you have reads otherwise)

Jeff_ 5 years, 2 months ago

Sure it is profitable, his sizing doesn't look strong. So I weight him towards 2 pairs/strong ace and pure bluffs (semi-bluffs).
Can't raise turn though because if you make too small you will need to fold vs shove which is waste of equity, if you make too big need to call: which is +EV play but not the Max EV. Can raise flop for information/semibluff

Eurocrat 5 years, 1 month ago

Agree with what has been said before, you're pretty much getting the right direct pot odds.

I play regular tables, so it might be different, but donk bets by recs usually imply medium strong or weak hands and only the occasional set. So I'm happy here raising OTF and would take the free card on most turns.

Chacarron91 5 years, 1 month ago

I don’t mind a flop raise here. I can see him leading flop and turn like he did a lot of the time and when you raise flop( I doubt he does 3bet the flop with less than 2pair) you get fold equity, build pit up for when you hit and get a free river a good % of the time. Half pot donks off are usually lighter than 3/4 as well.

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