25NLz - Call or shove on the river?

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25NLz - Call or shove on the river?

Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players) BN: $67.77
SB: $24.37
BB: $59.50
UTG: $27.55
MP: $25.00 (Hero)
CO: $26.32
Preflop ($0.35) Hero is MP with Q Q
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.75, 2 folds, SB calls $0.65, BB folds
Flop ($1.75) T 2 4
SB checks, Hero bets $1.00, SB calls $1.00
Turn ($3.75) T 2 4 2
SB checks, Hero bets $2.50, SB calls $2.50
River ($8.75) T 2 4 2 9
SB bets $5.00

Villain is unknown but since he is calling from SB at these stakes and donkey betting the river, he is a potential fish.

As played, are we raising this bet? I've seem some player flat calling JJ, AT, T9s and the pocket pairs that makes the set.

What should we do in this river?

5 Comments

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James Hudson 7 years ago

I think that we should be raising. With that sizing it looks more like a blocking bet than someone who just hit a boat with 99. We can still potentially get paid off by hands like 109s or A10 and villain is rarely going to have a deuce. I can see myself just calling in game in this situation but I think that it's probably leaving value on the table. I'm curious as to whether everyone feels the same way or if this isn't that clear cut.

josephtamraz 7 years ago

i would like to hear some pros talking about this spot. personally i really dont know what to do in this spot whether to raise or call.
but its an easy call

Jeff_ 7 years ago

raise/fold seems standard, and not going huge something like 11.78- 12.55$. Most fishes wont shove 44 vs your raise, if he shoves regardless folding.

a_zuzolo 7 years ago

I think this is a spot where I would need to KNOW that my opponent was very bad/loose to raise here.

I get that we have reason to believe here that he is a weak player, but if this hand is all I have to go by, I am probably just going to call on the river.

I think we may be slightly overestimating the likelihood that he will call with worse here. I can easily many players (even weaker ones) finding folds here with JT, KT, AT, etc.

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