25NL Zoom Can i escape this call?
Posted by cyaniidez89
Posted by cyaniidez89 posted in Low Stakes
25NL Zoom Can i escape this call?
SB: $24.60
BB: $79.79 (Hero)
UTG: $8.74
MP: $25.50
CO: $25.00
BB lost and shows a flush, Queen high.
BN wins $86.54
Rake is $2.00
Ok, So I've been out of the game a long time and have just started to play again so forgive me if this hand is just ridiculous or completely results orientated but i feel like i could use some input regardless.
I defended Q5s here which i assume is OK (If not I'll appreciate the feedback) given stack depth but i have no reads whatsoever on Villain going into this hand (By the turn it becomes clear he isn't very good)
I elected to raise the flop as i felt it played better than calling OOP w/ Q high on such a board and because i can feasibly have all 9T combos, 77 and J8 here and fold out some better hands either on flop or by the river.
Turn i hit the flush and go for value and get min-raised. Alarm bells go off but so does the inclination that Villain is now very likely a fishy player and it would be impossible to justify folding when I can't rule out Villain going crazy w Ahx , 9T and sets or worse flushes.
River is a blank and Villain time banks a little while and jams.
I need 29% to call and lose to 13 combos of hearts i assume open from the button every time. AK/J/T/9/6/3/2 and K2/3/6/9/T/J.
I can beat J9/T/6hh and 9T/6hh that should always open the button also. If Villains range is wider then i can also beat 23/6hh and 36hh
So if i give Villain 6 combos out of these potential 8 just as a rough estimation i end up ahead of 31% of Villains range needing 29% and if the whole 8 is included then I'm ahead of 38% assuming Villain only ever plays a flush this way and even wider if there are any other hands in Villains range.
This was my line of thinking on the river (Without the exact maths)
Is the play on earlier streets fine? If so, is this river always a call or have i been too generous in assigning Villains potential hand range?
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