25nl QQ 3bet fold pre
Posted by bossman
Posted by
bossman
posted in
Low Stakes
25nl QQ 3bet fold pre
site looks very cool
but have trouble somehow converter doesn't work for me, it says invalid hand format (my setup is pokerstars +hm2) that is strange says wrong hand format,that's why posting by weaktight
http://weaktight.com/5294891
villain is 21/16
opens from MP 21% of hands which is very loose
fold to 3bet total is 54%! lowish
fold to 3bet MP in position only 36%(84 sample)
his 4bet range from mp 1,3 which is only 6%!!!
he calls 3bets on MP 58% of the time, and 4bets 6%!!!
don't like his sizing he made it too big, so he commits himself and looks like he is not bluffing
versus QQ+ AK ev of the shove is negative -2,9$
but that guy could have even lot more narrower range something like he could 4bet half his QQ and Ak combos and call with half... so vs AA(6),KK(6), AK(8) QQ(1) we will have 30% equity and negative EV of -8,2$ he could be 4betting like only with KK,AA here too
So versus that villain we should 3bet versus his calling range and fold vs his 4bet range(when he is EP or MP; co &bu he plays looser jamming would be ok) btw postflop he plays pretty str8 forward that why flatting is not that great, he won't barrel into us like crazy
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However, I think generally people who 4bet to this size at 25nl are unbalanced towards value. The sample size is fairly important too. Generally I'm still getting it in here though because he will bluff a non zero % and 3bet folding QQ is just sucky without really good reads.
There is definately situations you can do it (eg live vs really bad players who will 4bet super unbalanced and flat 3bets really wide), but I don't think we have enough information about this player to put him in that category yet.
Maybe I'm just bad though, would be interested to know if anyone does fold here.
in general i find myself almost never 3bet folding QQ, but looks like in that spot we are forced to do it
You mention that his size worries you. Why? Couldn't he be making it this size as a bluff because it looks scarier?
I also find that often the bigger the size the less likely they are to have AA and KK (for fear of getting folds). And the more likely they are to have something like AK, AQ or JJ trying to make it so you will never flat and thus they won't have to play these "tricky" hands post flop. Also if he does ever have a bluff, you now win a bigger pot by shoving.
Regardless of the size though, you said he's got an MP 4b of 6%. However the super tight range you have given him of QQ+ and AK only accounts for 2.1% of hands. Where is the rest of that 6% coming from? Sure it could be variance and he has picked up AA every time, but more likely he is 4betting at least some combos of bluffs or JJ here to get to that 6% number. And if you add a couple of those into your stove range, i think you'll see that peanut butter and jam is the way here.
guess he flats even all AK QQ combos being on early position. So when we jam we are most likely up against premiums ( i almost never 3bet /fold pre , but suppose in that hand it is the best play) we still want to 3bet him, because he calls too much 3bets.
he opens 21%, he 4bets 6% of the time, range he 4bets =his open raise multiply by % he 4bets=21*0,06=1,26% so we get 1,26% range
1,26% so most likely it is QQ+ range , we have zero FE and our equity vs QQ+ or AKs+ KK+ ,vs QQ + our equity is only 20,7%, we have huge sample
This stat should work such that X= 4bPF, Y=F23b and Z=Call 3b. And X+Y+Z=100%.
Also I read the definitions of 4Bet range and it looks like our 6% number for 4b PF was correct all along! 4b Range is defined as "Range of hands player 4bets with : based on 4bet Pct x Open Raise Pct. So in your case it would be 4bet Pct x 21 = 1.3. Thus, 4bet Pct = 1.3/21 = 6%.
Next step use PokerStove and count how is QQ vs 2,1% range.
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