25nl playing paired turn IP after raising flop
Posted by mattdonk
Posted by
mattdonk
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25nl playing paired turn IP after raising flop
Villain appears relatively decent loose aggressive player, no real other reads appart from him appearing loose and reggish stats
i have no problems with raising the fives here on the flop, planning to barrell off any non heart runouts
Then I turn a boat which is great, the jack is definitely better for his range as opposed to mine but before I line up the bet I starting thinking if my range wants to bet here?
a) if i don't care about balancing then bet turn, bet river is clearly the best with my hand right?
b) if I want to balance then I feel like i want to check back my hearts / draws on the turn because i don't want to get blown of equity so,
do you think it's better to barrell boats & draws or check back on the paired turn?
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Hello mattdonk,
First, thanks for organizing your post and providing your thought process and asking a very specific question. This helps us when we provide our feedback.
But, unfortunately you made a mistake preflop and should simply fold there.
As played, not betting the turn is quite horrible. You very much need to continue on that turn. Also, the hh does not provide us with sizings and that is also important.
Why the flat pre is a mistake? Assuming there aren't any loose fishes left to act after you which add implied odds, are you folding every time here? If not, when you do flat?
@ddog - i'm in position vs UTG so can't lead i raised a cbet
@brokenstarts - then i guess that means you are betting draws also on the turn? feel like i want to check some draws here as getting check raised blows us off equity with most of the draw. Perhaps flatting 5's is a mistake btn vs utg and we could go like 77+ but given i don't expect to be squeezed alot from the blinds in these positions I think it can't be too bad and we were a little deeper
Also yeah thanks for comment on replayer, I tried weaktight but kept getting a login error so used HH and it seemed to have converted it without the betsizes or stacks (i used 3x because we were a little deep like 120bbs)
opps sorry bro that was suppose to say turn :oP
Why not bet turn... the HH is all F-ed up my bad..
I don't like the call pre either, unless UTG is a fish, or BB is a Fish or SB is too Fishy.
I don't think betting your draws on that turn is a bad thing, if he pushes there with trips (QJ+) easy fold don't need to worry, you don't have that much equity to begin with. If he does it with a boat same thing.
Now, river I'm always checking, be it a heart or a brick. Don't think he will call with worse when the heart hits, or fold trips if a brick hits.
If we do it with a set (like this spot) we should probably bet on bricks and hearts.
The river bet is awfully unbalanced [for 25NL population exploitation]. If we would want to balance it we could bet some AXs and KQs (to block AJ, KJ, QJ).
Interested to hear what the bottom of your calling range is in this spot?
I think I agree about betting the turn with draws... but does it make a difference whether we have the NFD or a lower FD? Is there more value in betting turn with a lower FD because villain has more FD combos himself in that spot (because he's going to continue with way more NFDs than lower FDs to a flop raise) and will fold those hands on the turn?
Also interested to hear a bit more about the river being unbalanced... do you mean we don't have any bluffs to balance our value bet in this spot?
I think a standard villain would overcall on this spot, because when the J hits the turn you have less sets combos. I might be pretty wrong here, but I think most of his continuing range would be :
overpairs QQ+(18c) +
Boats JJ,66(4c) +
Jx QJ+ (24c)
Total = 46c
So, overpairs might be tempted to call river, so let's say all his AA combos he calls, then our FE is 12 / 46 = 26%
And we don't have enough FE to make this a EV+ bluff.
To make EV=0 we would need 40% asumming your river bet size is 66%. And 40% of his range it's something like : 46*40% = 18.4c so he would have to fold all his overpairs always.
Like I said, IMO in this spot, the average REG population (when considering balance we talk about regs right?) will tend to overcall.
"Interested to hear what the bottom of your calling range is in this spot?"
You mean pre? Well I'm a F-in nitt in regards of Btn ColdCalling, I would call 99-TT, AQ, KJs, KQs. And sometimes AK. SC and wheel AXs I play 3bet or Fold.
EDIT: I forgot about JTs, but I think this makes my argument stronger. But again this is jut my opinion.
I just played a almost identical hand (utg opens, mp calls i call otb with 55).
utg bets, mp folds, i raise with a set he calls.
Turn give quads and then I realized.
YOUR SIZE, it's important that you keep it small OTT.
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