25NL - overfolding over pair?
Posted by CatBathe
Posted by
CatBathe
posted in
Low Stakes
25NL - overfolding over pair?
Hand Replayer: https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/4tS504p
Don't have any read on villain.
Here is my thought
Preflop: Villain's 3bet size is little bit bigger than usual. People usually 3bet 7bb against 2.2x open size, but not a big deal i guess.
Flop: (233r)my first thought of flop was this flop was good for 3bettor since 3bettor has all high pairs: QQ+. However, hero has more overpairs than villain(% in range), so this board is not that bad. Villain bets half pot. I think his bet sizing should be bigger. I called. Solver says that against 50% bet, JJ raises about 50%, but I think just call is fine.
Turn: T. Turn card hits villain more since villain has AT, KT type of hands. Villain bets around half pot and I called again.
River: 8. River card is blank. Villain bets around 1/3 pot. Well, villain can thin bet like this with his TPTK(such as AT). However, most players do not play that aggressively with Top pair. I think villain bets QQ+ most of the times in this situation. Therefore, I just folded.
I wanna hear your thoughts.
Loading 4 Comments...
I feel the need to make a crying call here actually. The problem to me is:
If we fold JJ on this concrete runout, we basically fold our whole range OTR. Still some A5s/A4s combos in Villains range that might find a triple, beside some spazzes or thin valuebets with AT.
From a theoretical PoV the Js in your hand makes your hand also a good candiate for bluffcatching as strong turned FD (KJss/QJss/AJss) are meant to check back OTR.
So this adds a slice of more bluffs in the triple line.
However: Its an ugly spot for sure and overfolding vs a pool that is basically underbluffing most spots will rarely be a big msitake. Its not like snap call with JJ at all....
I agree that JJ is in the top of my range and I should call at least some frequency in GTO world. I know that if I fold JJ, I would be exploitable. However, people at microstakes would not notice of it, so I just made my hero fold here..
I think if I play mid-stakes, I should call this hand.
All day.
And against a group of opponents all day.
Your hand is deeply underrepresented.
You say no reads on villian and you have villian showing up with 10x some of the time it's an easy call with those odds
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