25nl: Is he ever bluffing?
Posted by MatoStar
Posted by
MatoStar
posted in
Low Stakes
25nl: Is he ever bluffing?
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (7 Players)
UTG: $31.21
MP: $20.91
UTG+1: $24.65
CO: $25.48
BN: $25.69 (Hero)
SB: $26.22
BB: $20.69
MP: $20.91
UTG+1: $24.65
CO: $25.48
BN: $25.69 (Hero)
SB: $26.22
BB: $20.69
looks like a solid reg so far (prob on a nitty side)
19/10 522
3b 4.5 (thats pretty low)
cb 69/70/55
19/10 522
3b 4.5 (thats pretty low)
cb 69/70/55
Preflop
($0.35)
Hero is BN with
3
3
, , , ,
Flop
($3.75)
J
A
3
,
not sure if I want to have a raising range, possibly yes.. with some flushes, KhQx or maybe even a twopair or sth for protection
Turn
($6.11)
J
A
3
4
, ,
River
($13.81)
J
A
3
4
K
, , ,
Getting value from AK,AQ,AJ,(AT,A4s). Dont think that he would value raise with AK. So I am not dominating any part of his value betting range. His only possible bluffs are some pocket pairs with a heart. But I doubt that people are check raising them as a bluff nearly often enough.
But what hands makes sense to take his line KhQh,KhTh,Kh9h and? QhXh flushes? are they check/calling the turn? Or is he vbetting even KK now?
Should we use this sizing when vbetting with flushes (or even with sets)?
But what hands makes sense to take his line KhQh,KhTh,Kh9h and? QhXh flushes? are they check/calling the turn? Or is he vbetting even KK now?
Should we use this sizing when vbetting with flushes (or even with sets)?
Loading 4 Comments...
I would like a raise on the flop as punishment for their action. This does not seem like a board where SB should be cbetting on often. Sure SB has AK and AA where BTN doesn't but when it comes to flushes BTN should have the advantage with Ah and Jh on board.
SB can't afford to bet all his flushes because then the checking range becomes weaker. I am attacking this cbet often. And BTN raise gets value from flushdraws + pair hands.
River is a fold. Seems unlikely someone is doing this as a bluff. They could have KhX on the turn that they call with but then turning it into a bluff on the river isn't something I've seen done often enough.
I'm unsure about our sizing. I would want to make it bigger but then I'm worried about isolating against better (AA, KhK, JJ, flushes). Maybe this small size is just the way to go. Something could be said to have a bigger turn size though.
I wasnt sure about the flop raise since I was scared of his 3bet, so that I would be forced to fold set with some outs..
Agree that turn size could be larger.. on the other hand, if he did a range bet OTF, we dont need to be stabbing with such a large size, do we?
Just wasnt sure, since he raised the river pretty quickly.. but found a fold in game, just felt a bit exploitable.
Spots like this I dislike. Mainly with how I think about the hand in game.
19/10 seems like a weaker reg.
So he could possibly be value betting AKo. But no clue how likely this assumption is, but leaning towards unlikely, given that he's a semi-reg.
Another assumption could be made , that most regs would barrel AA and JJ on the turn at a decent frequency, maybe checked on flop, and just called on the river.
Given his 4.5 low 3 bet, he unlikely has a lot of flush draws in his range. K10s, KJs, Q10s, 109s, and possibly low frequency K9s, 87s, 98s, Q9s.
And I would think that most flushes are barreled (good assumption i think)
So that leaves his river value range to be a low weight of slow played flushes and slow played sets. Maybe 1-2 combos.
His possible bluffs would be QhQx(possibly low weight), 10h10h, 9h9x , 8h8x (likely low weight), maybe some A10-2s (I think unlikely), some KQo with a heart that didn't want to barrel (unlikely) , and QJo with a heart that didn't barrel (unlikely).
So I like a call here , given his low value combos , possible bluffs , and dominated value hands.
Though in-game I think I might make the possible error of folding. As I get caught up in trying to picture/think about the exact # of combos with the weights based on the assumptions I make. And before I know it have 5 seconds to act and I fold because I see he's a 19/10 and I assume that these players never ever bluff. :D
Agree with most of your thoughts, except of the fact that 19/10 means that there is ahigher chance that he is a weaker reg. Mainly because those stats are from 9max and being a on a bit tighter side might be vs certain players the highest ev option.
If he is vbetting only flushes, then we should probably call (really few combos, based on his 3bet). On the other hand when you have a 3b stat of 5 in 9max, your 3bet SBvsBTN could be even 10 or higher. Therefore we can include more combos of flushes
Some players might value bet even KhKx or check the turn with non-nut flushes at some frequency. Tough to say whether guys at nl25 are turning pairs into a bluff in these lines. But my value range is also pretty strong, probably AJ+, so we are not getting exploited by folding 33 here. That said, I would rather pay for the showdown with better hand than a bottom set.
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