25NL - Folding (better) two pair?

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25NL - Folding (better) two pair?

https://www.weaktight.com/h/5685b8abd39043e4658b457c

Villain is unknown.

I believe that his range is polarized on the river.

He is either bluffing or betting with nuts.

Flop: I believe he does not have TPTK/TPGK or triple. He might bet if he has one of them. overpair, bet as well.

Turn: he bets. i don't know what his bet means here. as I wrote, if he had Top pair, AT,KT, he would bet on the flop.

River: he fire again. hmmmmmm..

he could have TT and 99 but only two combos since I block both of hands.

TPWK, such as JT,QT. hard to believe that he 3-bet with these hands.

I think he bluff with QJs. Since odds are good on the river, I should call this hand.

Any suggestion guys?

10 Comments

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JCJordypants 9 years, 2 months ago

Call me nit but I think against an unknown I would probably fold T9s even in position until I know a bit more about the villain's 3betting tendencies. But like I said this could be far too nitty!

As played he could check a large portion of his range here as it's a relatively dry board apart from the flush draw so will probably bet with the hands that have little to no equity such as a KQo etc.

On the turn I think he can start betting for value with all his overpairs, and the Tx that he didn't bet on the flop as well as his flush draws, straight draws (if he has any) and I think generally they would be again with that entire range on the river.

If we say he has a range on the river of 99+ and all suited broadways so ATs+ and JTs+ then we have 55% equity vs that range.

If we say he has a range of 99+, AJs+, JQs+ then we have 48% equity so both are a call.

These ranges have been done very quickly so I've not had a chance to remove some of the suits that would probably cbet on the flop such as KdQd but even taking those into account with the odds we're getting it should be a call.

taaazz 9 years, 2 months ago

I would bet the flop for value/protection. I'd like your XB a lot more with a hand like AT, because of the great implied odds on Ax turns. As played, I'm never folding the R. He's still vbetting random Tx, OvP are unlikely to be played like this at this limit (although it happens), we're getting great odds etc.

MungGae 9 years, 2 months ago

Thanks for great reply man. Yeah I usually check-back with top-pair medium kicker but bet for protection is better :)

Profchaos911 9 years, 2 months ago

If you call that turn you have to call the river. I think most air would bet this flop but the fact that he checked tells me he has something. Just like you checked back your TP would be a sign to me you hit it. I say either fold turn or call it down.

kafrinius 9 years, 2 months ago

preflop plz dont fold this sweet hand.
bet 1/3 max to 50% on flop for easy protection / value from overcards....
std play as u played it + im not folding river.
[Basically it's what taaaazz said :D ]

MungGae 9 years, 2 months ago

Can we continue c-bet if low card comes on the turn? and maybe just check-back if high card; A,K,Q,J hit the turn?

taaazz 9 years, 2 months ago

@Mung:
I would defenitely bet small once more for protection (he still has a lot of overcards once he XC the flop) and XB any non T/9 river.

For this exact reason, I would XB when an overcard hits ott, because:

a) it his his perceived range a lot
b) we're not getting 2 more streets of value on this card anyway
c) we don't block any of those
d) we could induce a bluff otr (he might recognize that this is a scare card for you and try to turn his Ahi/ into a bluff or sth)

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