25nl facing river donk shove from fish

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25nl facing river donk shove from fish

http://weaktight.com/5294916

SB and BB both fishes
SB 42/8 only 13 hands (zoom)

flop and turn look fine

river:on that river i expect villain to show up
with ~ 46 combos of TRIPS or better
50 combos of Qx
and 50-70 combos of no made hands (which include busted OESD like t9, 56, some busted gutshots)

for us to call river (27%) villain has to be value cutting/spazzing himself with 18 worse combos (50 combos) or to be bluffing with 18(50-70 combos) combos...

should our default play be vs unknown fish just to muck? because he is unknown we will assume that he is not bluffing with his busted OESD and gutshots ? until we get reads that it is otherwise

9 Comments

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Ace 12 years, 3 months ago
It's annoying because we have the ace of diamonds but fish at lower stakes love playing flushes and trips like this and we have no indication of him spazzing with missed draws so far, so I'm just mucking I think.
Ace 12 years, 3 months ago
Also minor point but go $2.50-$2.75 on the flop because their calling ranges are going to be fairly inelastic here.
Parker Muir 12 years, 3 months ago
I personally just do not fold in this spot versus an unknown fish. The odds we are getting on a call are just so good that I think that we will see enough random bluffs or worse for value (Qx) for a call to be at least break even.

But most importantly, I like a call against an unknown fish because we will get to see his hand. Since it's the first time he's done this, seeing his hand will tell us a great deal about how he plays.

For instance even if he turns over 34dd and we lose, we can still end up using that information to profit later. We now know that he check-calls his non-SD value FDs (instead of check-raise) on both flop and turn. We also know that he leads river when he hits draws. We can extrapolate this info and determine that his flop/turn check-raising ranges do not include include draws very often, and thus adjust accordingly. We also know that on a board like this when he goes check-call, check-call and the river brings in a flush. If he checks to us a third time, we can discount flushes from his range and thus find that a river flush card is going to be a great one for us to either bluff or value bet thinly.
Ace 12 years, 3 months ago
I can definitely see your point but it's worth noting that in zoom fish go bust at lower limits so quickly and you obviously change tables in a massive player pool so the value of that information is massively decreased when compared to normal tables.
Parker Muir 12 years, 3 months ago
I didn't notice that that this was at Zoom, but the concept still applies. Sure they can bust faster, but this fish could also amass a giant stack and you see him again 200bb deep. Even at Zoom there is definitely a non-zero amount of value to be gained from the information. I do agree that it is much less though.

But, as I alluded to at the beginning of my first post, I would still make this call even if he didn't have to show his hand. The information we get is just gravy on top of what I think is already a good call.
Kimi 12 years, 3 months ago
I think loose passive fish is almost never bluffing here, i don't see him shoving Qx, only bluffs he can have are 9T, TJ 69, 56(if hes turning them in bluff at all). Also disagree with calling for info, fish will go to showdown with other people too often so we don't need to buy info, esp not here when we r crushed.
Sean Lefort 12 years, 3 months ago
This is one of those spots where some X% of the time the fish is a type A fish where his bet here is very much weighted to the value hands and a call is a mistake, and some Y% of the time the fish is a type B fish where his bet is weighted towards bluffs and a fold is huge mistake. I think the fact that a fold could be a giant mistake (I do see fish show up here with rando QX/8X or even random 55 type hands sometimes) getting 3:1 has me calling as a default. It's a pretty decent rule of thumb that in spots where there's a lot of uncertainty with regards to how your opponent is playing yet you know he's a fish starting with a wide range and you're getting 3:1 on a bluff-catcher, you should call.

Also wanted to point out that OP, I really like you're thought process with respect to counting combos of hands and such. Well done.

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