25NL: Does Villain even have bluffs on this river?

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25NL: Does Villain even have bluffs on this river?

Yatahay Network - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

UTG: 100 BB
Hero (CO): 316.64 BB
BTN: 100 BB
SB: 100 BB
BB: 132.16 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB, UTG posts penalty blind 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.4 BB) Hero has Qd 8d
UTG checks, Hero raises to 2.48 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 1.48 BB, UTG calls 1.48 BB

Flop : (7.84 BB, 3 players) Qh 7d Td
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets 5.6 BB, fold, UTG calls 5.6 BB

Turn : (19.04 BB, 2 players) Qc
UTG checks, Hero bets 13.56 BB, UTG calls 13.56 BB

River : (46.16 BB, 2 players) 5c
UTG checks, Hero bets 14.48 BB, UTG raises to 78.36 BB and is all-in, Hero ???

This is literally the first hand with Villain ever so I have no info about him. Check raising the blank on the river as opposed to the scarier card on the turn pretty much screams strength and there aren't any straights or flushes out. Am I just nuts for considering this a fold at 25NL or is that a reasonable course of action?

3 Comments

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Fish-fil-A 4 years, 6 months ago

With UTG posted, I'd make the preflop raise bet size larger to ~4bb.

You can fold Q8 here. I think the 8 kicker is likely the worst kicker in your opening range with a queen. So it's the worst value hand you can have after triple barreling.

MatoStar 4 years, 6 months ago
  1. Iso bigger pre

  2. I really hate your river sizing and the fold afterwards.. he has got decent amount of busted FDs and SDs, so you are basically inducing raises from those hands.

  3. Since he posted pre, I would expect that there is pretty high chance that we are dealing with volatile player profile. Therefore I would bet the river much bigger (1/2-2/3). Vs this size, I am not that afraid of getting bluff-raised, because you are repping much stronger range.

  4. Don't get me wrong, I think your line is really good against vast majority of regs at 25nl, however, I don't think this is the case

  5. We are playing reg tables, not zoom, I mean it's subtle, but I would say on reg tables it might get bluffed more often.

  6. Weak players might actually raise for value any Q, because of your sizing. Then we are already dominating part of his valuebetting range, so we have another reason for calling.

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