25NL confused
Posted by Mk4298
Posted by
Mk4298
posted in
Low Stakes
25NL confused
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players)
BN: $30.27
SB: $26.42
BB: $8.39
UTG: $26.54
MP: $26.97 (Hero)
CO: $39.52
SB: $26.42
BB: $8.39
UTG: $26.54
MP: $26.97 (Hero)
CO: $39.52
Preflop
($0.35)
Hero is MP with
A
9
, , ,
Flop
($1.79)
8
5
2
,
Turn
($4.09)
8
5
2
K
, ,
River
($19.45)
8
5
2
K
A
, ,
Final Pot
CO wins $18.57
Rake is $0.88
Rake is $0.88
Not really sure what villain's range looks like after calling my flop bet. Really not in love with my turn bet and it feels like villain's only value hands after min raising the turn are sets.
Any thoughts would be appreciated.
Loading 3 Comments...
I would still expect some floats of overcards (esp. with BDFD) and obv 67 OTF.
All of these hands pick up something OTT and might decide to raise.
A3s/A4s might be in Villains range as well. All of these hands might bluff river (or for A3s/A4s bet the river for thin value).
IMO we can not fold given the great price.
Its 9 combos of flopped sets vs potentially
4x 67s
7x A3s/A4s
2x JThh/QJhh
Your turn bet is on the high side, 2/3 PSB could fold out 44,66,77, A4,A3 that peeled flop.
Given the pot odds, we need to be good > 30%. With 9 sets he has to have at least 4 bluffs to make this +EV.
I don't know how many hands bluff turn for a minraise. The problem is if villain taking this weird line with the potential bluff combos above only 25% of the time it's 13x.25 = 3.33 effective combos and calling is -EV. It's a really weird bluff line that produces very little FE, so I think bluffs need to be discounted. On the flip side, he could value own himself with A3, A4 if he thinks you have a king.
I find that this is a nutted line from a rec that minraises turns strong and vbets relatively small on river because they really want to get paid and they want showdown their monster.
Regs don't click it back on the turn very often unless maybe you're cbetting too much.
Weird spot, probably somewhere between a fold and a sighing call.
Agree that it's a nutted line. And in case he has a Kx top pair, most fish vill check that back on this river.
The two things I would do different:
1) Smaller flop size. This is unnecessary and you'll have the same effect with 50% or tbh with 33% size as well. A bunch of floats can call your 33% cbet OTF and you can barrel the turn just like you did (you can even check/call the turn, lot of similar EV possibilities here). But you're cbetting too big for sure.
2) Smaller turn size. You don't need it to make this big, 2/3 pot will achieve the same exact thing. Again, you also have the option to check/call against floats and the occasional draws, and if you cbet 33% OTF, it's even better, because he has even more of those.
But a lot of times we don't want to be in the check/call situation for 2 streets against an unknown fish. Who knows, he might bet AQ or bottom pair and that's gonna be a mindf*ck :D So I'm fine with the barrel itself.
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