25NL Bottom set facing river OVERBET

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25NL Bottom set facing river OVERBET

Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players) BN: $22.74
SB: $31.65 (Hero)
BB: $41.93
UTG: $10.79
MP: $49.19
CO: $25.10
Preflop ($0.35) Hero is SB with 5 5
4 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, BB calls $0.50
Flop ($1.50) J 5 K
Hero bets $1.00, BB calls $1.00
Turn ($3.50) J 5 K 9
Hero bets $2.25, BB raises to $6.25, Hero calls $4.00
River ($16.00) J 5 K 9 A
Hero checks, BB bets $24.50, Hero folds
Final Pot BB wins $15.28
Rake is $0.72

Villain is reg playing 25/22/14 over 100 hands ... fcb 100 (3/3)

Expect villain to be wide pre and on flop.
Eliminating JJ and KK as he flatted pre.

Don't really expect him to overbet river w KJ or worse for value so this is likely busted FD or QT.
Can I ever think about a call here?

8 Comments

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AggroShooter 8 years, 3 months ago

Fold, and take a note. I think Villain has the obvious hand he's repping, but if he overbets in other hands you could take into consideration a call in future hands.
In general I don't think many regs take this line often with non-nutted hands especially at this stake

Do a quick DB reserach, and find out how many times regs take this line. Anyway I put a reminder in my notes to look for this info in my DB. I will update you whenever I have some spare time and i can dig into it

AggroShooter 8 years, 3 months ago

I would do a population report for hands that got raised OTT and overshoved the river. If you have PT4 you can easily achieve that, dunno with HM2

ismaithliom 8 years, 3 months ago

Thanks I will give it a go. Yes I have pt4.

Haven't much experience using the filters etc simply because I am lazy but I really should put more effort in :)

AggroShooter 8 years, 3 months ago

Many spots are available if you filter properly, but if you are looking for a precise situation you could encounter some issues. Anyway as I stated above, I put this on my to do list, I'll keep you updated and when I've done the report I could share it with you without any problem. The only real problem is time

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