25NL AQ spewy OP float in 3b Pot?
Posted by OnlyTheNuts
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OnlyTheNuts
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Low Stakes
25NL AQ spewy OP float in 3b Pot?
Villain's stats: VPIP: 18.31, PFR: 14.08, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29 over 72 hands.
http://weaktight.com/6278749
I don't know if this is OK, but here's my thought process. Although I only have like 70 hands on villain, his 3b percentage was pretty high so I decided to defend AQ OP instead of turning it into a bluff. A hand like A2s I'd 4bet. On the flop I figure a lot of his range has missed this flop and I have overs so I call to minc/r the turn sometimes and represent 99 and JJ only. I figure he might be a barreler if his 3b percentage is that high so if he is I'll get a lot of folds for a very low price. On the other hand, some of the time he might even lay down the overpair since there was no history and some of the regs just do. If he checks back I plan on betting the river representing AJ, KJs, QJs, TT, JJ, 99 and expect a lot of folds there as well. Is my thought process faulty and is this spew?
He snapped so fast I felt violated.
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"He snapped so fast I felt violated." Nice way to put it.
You seem to be very aware of the situation, as well as of your play, which is very good. Villain has a very high 3b%, so folding to his 3bet is out of the question imo. You seem to have the same point of view.
Where our opinions differ, is still preflop. I would turn the hand into a bluff, because villain will fold a very high % of the time, and because it sets you up perfectly for the play to come. It'll give you a looser image, and maybe he'll even start 4-betting loose, so you can call for value when that happens.
For the post-flop play, I think your thought process was good, and you sort of got unlucky, but I would have raised the flop. It would help you narrow his range, and give you a better idea of what he is holding, and prevents him from pot controlling on the turn, which he did. It also gives you the opportunity to multi-barrel, and makes him harder for him to call with pocket pairs (88 through 55), if he did 3bet with a real hand.
All that said, I like your play. It doesn't work perfectly that often, but the reasoning behind it wasn't bad either. However, I would recommend having a better plan than just betting if the villain pot controls like he did. maybe consider check/raising, or just shutting down. A raise on the flop would've given you the information necessary to make such a decision.
It's always easier to talk with 20/20 hindsight, so I can't say myself if I would've played it any better, but I hope this helped.
check the river.. no point in turning your hand in to a bluff because you're probably good sometimes and he's never bluffing that run out.. i don't think betting half pot accomplishes anything at all, unless you're trying to get him to fold AK specifically
Thanks for the input, guys.
NoHubris: I flat my entire continuing range on the flop as I think raising on such a dry flop in itself looks kinda bluffy. On the turn however, I think it looks more believable/stronger and there's more money in the pot, which I obviously like.
nma: I understand I have sd value but I wanted him to not only fold AK but anything weaker than jacks, really. If he hit a random 9 or a 6 I actually expected him to fold. There's hardly a draw in my range on the flop and I'm not valuebetting anything weaker than TT on that board there (I don't have 9's in my range), and I kinda expected he'd come to that very same conclusion. And he totally didn't.
Edit: I just stoved my perceived range there to see what percentage kq (the only draw) is vs my value range and if he would've thought it was in my betting range (as the only bluff), than technically he made a mistake. ~3 to 1 pot odds vs 3.5 to 1 in ranges.
sometimes you need to worry less about whether or not someone is going to make a mistake by calling or not. I think you're reading too deep into it, because most people at these stakes will just call a half pot size bet and not care what your perceived range looks like.
Considering it`s a small sample pre is fine, allthough with a larger sample i`d prefer 4betting vs this type of villain, calling in position.
Flop call is just bad.This flop hits both his 3b bluffing and vb range and you have such poor equity with often only 3 clean outs.Floating aggro players out of position with these types of hands WILL burn you money.
River is really bad.You are still way ahead of his bluffing range so there`s really no point of turning your hand into a bluff and by checking you protect the weaker parts of your range.
Thanks, Hustla. I understand everything you said except for (1) why it's fine to call pre when it's only a small sample on those stats whilst on a larger sample you prefer 4b and (2) what you exactly meant by checking aq on the river to protect the weaker parts of my range and (3) how this flop exactly hits his bluffing 3b range well?
1) If he had 15% 3b over a large sample, i would prolly flat 40, 4b 60% to gii vs him, depending on positions and stacks depth.I like to think about hands in more of abstract fashion, so it`s more of an idea then a solution.We can`t really get to optimal frequency, without also knowing his postflop tendencies.I.E if he was aggro pre, but very passive postflop, we can reverse the odds or flat close to 100% etc.
2) I mean you`re very unbalanced here when you donk otr.If you had 55,77,88,TT, A9s,T9s,98s, for example would you be looking to get to sd or vb.So you protect the weak parts of your range by check calling some stronger parts.
3) What i ment is that vs aggro villain who is prepared to fire multiple barrels this flop is very bad to float with AQo even against the weakest parts of his range, containing naked gs`s bd fd`s etc.This is a rough 15% : JJ+,AKs,A2s-A9s,K9s+,Q9s+,J8s+,T8s+,97s+,87s,76s,65s,AKo,KTo-KJo,QTo+,JTo, so you can see there are very few turns on which he stops barreling.If the 9 otf was for example a 2 then it`d be a much better floating spot, all though still debatable oop.Bottom line, without very strong reads, you should be insta folding this hand otf.
Thanks for the reply. On 2), I don't see how I'm protecting my weaker range with checking aq since I'm never c/c with it. So I don't really get what you're getting at. I am however convinced now checking was the right play on the river because a 9 and TT probably don't fold often enough, there's prolly no small pairs in his range and I have sdv. On 3) My plan was to minc/r a lot of turns + shove rivers, I actually wanted him to barrel a lot on the turn. I might be misapplying a concept here but what other part of my calling range am I going the bluff the turn? I need some bluffs in there, right? I figured AQ was good for that. That aside, there wasn't any history so I figured I had a lot of FE anyway. I had a plan, man. (y)
Why are you never ch/c with AQ?
What better hands in villains range check back turn, but are gonna vb river?
Why do you need to have bluffs in 3b pots otr vs virtually unknown villains?
Why are you making plans to min x/r x turns vs virtually unknown villains?
To answer your first two questions: weird overpairs as James Hudson said, AJ that's maybe scared of a c/r on the turn, kj/qj that's not sure if it should vb on the turn and now feels secure, TT going for thinner value. I don't know anything about villain's tendencies but I think it's a weird spot to bluff since he already gave up on the turn and he doesn't really rep anything strong. I just think that usually villain gives up on those riverspots when checking back the turn although I could be wrong. But personally, I need a read to call on the river, not vice versa.
To answer your third question: I don't need to have bluffs, you're right about that. I guess that doesn't come into it.
To answer your fourth question: I think it may be profitable. I figure with those stats (and maybe it's premature) there's a strong possibility he's barreling weak + when I'm virtually unknown myself, I suspect him to give me extra credit and he may even lay down the overpair + against regs I don't mind making history where I'm aggressive. I think the regs give you credit first and then (possibly) start calling down lighter, which I try to be aware of. If he calls down light or if he calls through with the overpair, I make a note and try to go for value against him since I suspect him thinking I'm a maniac. I only play 6 tables and I'm trying to be aware of those things and incorporate it into my game. But at the same time I have to admit I'm not playing way more agressive against regs first as a general gameplan or anything, I try to have balanced ranges.
All that said, it could be premature with only 70 hands on him. I honestly don't know about that. But in general I like to play back against the aggressive ones b/c it's profitable. Ofc you're aware of that and maybe it just is premature. But I thought the "threshold" for vpip/pfr was <100 hands and for 3b I don't know but intuitively I think the stat "solidifies" pretty quick.
Agree with James, except for ''it's unlikely that he 3 bet a small-mid pocket pair to begin with''
He's been playing 18/14 which is tight, but he's 3-bet 14% so far, which is very high, so Villian probably 3-bets close to everything he plays except for maybe the hands that fall right in the middle of his range.
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