25NL | AKo w NFD in SQZ Pot

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25NL | AKo w NFD in SQZ Pot

BN: $61.08
SB: $15.84
BB: $41.41 (Hero)
UTG: $51.59
HJ: $31.36
CO: $26.11
Preflop ($0.35) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt K A
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO raises to $0.75, BN folds, SB calls $0.65, Hero raises to $3, CO calls $2.25, SB calls $2.25
Flop ($9.25) 8 8 3 (3 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $4.64, CO calls $4.64, SB folds
Turn ($18.53) 8 8 3 T (2 Players)
Hero bets $33.77, and is all in

Villain is a reg 

21/18 w 33% CO RFI. 

36% F3B and 4bets 25% (19)

FCB in 3b 13% (1)

WWSF/WTSD/WSD 25/25/45

Over 1.2k hands


Villain has $18.47 OTT. Think the shove is pretty standard here right esp cause i need to balance my QQ+ here. 

1) Do you like CB OTF?

2) How light can villain call off? 

6 Comments

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Ducky7 11 years, 1 month ago

Yeah you gonna have TT + and even when we do get called here we have a tonne of equity, bar when he has a boat obvs 

Seems like a good spot to shove to me :) 

Calling off depends on villain I think flush scares most regs at 25 but sometimes you can get called by like Tx maybe 77-99 (bottom of their range, boats and flushs ldo)

But i think you get a lot of folds with this line and like i said you have a tonne of equity 

CombatCarl 11 years, 1 month ago

I think it depends on your squeeze image somewhat but what else can we do here except to keep the initiative by firing again on turn and obviously that would mean a shove considering SPR. Well played in my opinion.  


ItsToothPasteISwear 11 years, 1 month ago

My first thought was same as everyone else, that yeah given stacks and our hand, we might as well just shove. Running some numbers tho im really not so sure

We prolly have to assume his range for calling flop is fairly strong because there is a player left to act, so say JJ-99, 8x, flush draws. So this turn really kinda sucks for us. Vs his likely calling off range we have around 13% equity, which means our EV is just under -$12, so to compensate for that we need him to end up folding around 39% of the time to break even on our shove.

If we assume he calls with JJ with a spade, all his flushes, any FH and any 8x he has, He has, depending on how wide his range is (does he have 33 and 98s, 87s, given PF action), around 17 combos that are calling. we need that to make up no more than 61% of his range, which means we need him to be folding about 11 combos. If we give him a narrower range we need him to be fodling 7 combos.

So we have a general idea for how many hands we need him to fold. What does he actually fold? lets say for sure he folds all his JJ and 99 with no spade, thats 6 combos. So we need him to have some more hands to fold, so we need him to have called the flop with some hand like 77. If hes calling the flop with 77, is he really the kind of guy whos even going to fold red jacks on the turn or 99 with a spade? Lets say he folds pretty wide, any JJ w/o a spade all his 99. Thats 9 combos, so depending on his PF this is in the range of slightly profitable to slightly unprofitable.

So yeah in short, I dunno, I suspect its -EV, he doesnt always even have JJ in his range as he 4 bets it PF (I dunno what your image is), so he has less hands to fold, so unless we think hes calling the flop with hands like 77/66 or still calling a hand like AQ on the flop, I dont see us being +EV here.




ItsToothPasteISwear 11 years, 1 month ago

Unless we think his range is wider than what I gave him, I think we have to check and fold if he bets. If we think he has those other hands then I think shoving is good. So it really comes down to how he views us and what his range is. If we really have no idea if he has JJ or 77 or AQ here, Id guess its prolly better to fold as I suspect its more often correct than it is a mistake, and hes also not going to bet every time we check. So he ends up making the the mistake not us.

I think its a really interesting hand in the fact that its soo much different if its HU on the flop or if we change the Ts to a Qs instead, in which case I think the best play is pretty easily a shove imo


Attrition 11 years, 1 month ago

i think this is a really spot on analysis. The reason I posted it was because villain called off so light her so i wasnt sure if it was a good turn shove or not but i see its probably really close if hes calling w 66/77/AQ. 

so i think it is a good shove vs this particular villain but against others its probably pretty spewy.

thanks

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