25NL AKo
Posted by screamdustry
Posted by
screamdustry
posted in
Low Stakes
25NL AKo
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players)
BB: $29.48
UTG: $25.00
MP: $30.58 (Hero)
CO: $17.03
BN: $23.02
SB: $40.05
UTG: $25.00
MP: $30.58 (Hero)
CO: $17.03
BN: $23.02
SB: $40.05
Preflop
($0.35)
Hero is MP with
K
A
, , , , , ,
Flop
($10.60)
A
3
Q
, ,
Turn
($22.18)
A
3
Q
5
,
River
($22.18)
A
3
Q
5
J
,
Villain is agressive regular after small sample - 36/28, 3bet: 17%, 112hands on him
Preflop: On these positions preflop i like to just call his 3bet, there is fish behind me so it also makes it even more EV+.
Flop is standard, on turn... He obviously have AA/QQ/AQ in his range, but once he checks i think he's more often on AJ/ATs. Decided to check it because he wouldnt stack it off anyway so im left with 1 street of value.
J is really good to his range so it was pretty easy fold on river for me. Im not sure about turn tho. I dont like stacking off on AQx texture in 3beted pot with my hand and SPR on turn is already very low.
Loading 6 Comments...
It think you should just bet the turn small with this SPR. It is not great if you get XR but you can call it. If called shove on blank rivers. Checking back turn is fine too and probably best if you don't put many AXs in his range.
As played I think fold OTR is best, but it is close and you have one of the better bluff-catchers.
agree, bet turn for value against weaker Ax and call the river because we showed a lot of weakness and we have a club in our hand and a K-blocker and toppair :).
I dont think its close to call on river. Ok, we got bluffcatcher, but what 'bluffs' he really have there after cbetting this flop into 3way with fish? Club draw completed, KT completed, it would only make sense to call river if he's shoving there hand like ATo? And i dont see it.
For value he only has AJs,QJs,JJ and maybe 3 flushcombos because he will double some flushdraws on the turn soo. Yea he may also delay some QQ like 1/3 of the time maybe and also delay some AQ but that's very few combos we're talking about.
So at max he has 14 value combos so he only needs 7 bluffcombos which is realistic. Basically if he is only bluffing 99 u are already breakeven. Pretty likely that he is bluffing more than that.
It's also not clear if he would even bet this flop with JJ. He may. He may not. But he will definately have bluffs OTF.
It depends how fishy the fish is. If he is like really fishy he will have a ton of Ax combinations which makes it pretty minus EV for he lag to cbet bluff on this board texture.
So this would lead to the ranges you suggested but if the fish is only semifish then he will not have as many Ax so a bluff from the reg could be possible.
I like your pre-flop play!
turn I like as well, wp
like Kal pointed out tho, this will be one of our best bluff catchers, but his value-bet region will expand some bit with the arrival of J♣. (he now has flushes , strs, and more two-P & sets in region). Sizing may tip scale to fold, not 100% on this. Bust out the calculator ;D
Im also having a hard time finding bluffs here...
I agree...fold OTR seems legit especially since its close to pot size. With 2:1 odds, I think its unlikely on this runout he will be bluffing 33% of the time or more especially given that he led into 2 players on the flop including a fish.
It's very likely he has AQ/QQ when he checks on turn and he's trying to get AK or a draw to bet, however, I think it would be reasonable to bet small on the turn given our SPR. The turn brings broadway and flush draws, and if villain is 3-betting that often it's most likely with a merged range, so even if all the money goes in on the turn its likely that you may have the best hand.
This one definitely comes down to your read on villain but I do like flatting the 3B to keep the fish in.
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