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25nl 6max: AKo IP SRP, flop A92r and get x/min-raised

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25nl 6max: AKo IP SRP, flop A92r and get x/min-raised

HJ: $25.40 (Hero)
CO: $25.74
BN: $25.75
SB: $18.22
BB: $25.72
UTG: $28.41
Villain is a fish with 48/42 VPIP/PFR after 30 hands, odd stack, no 3bet.
Preflop ($0.35) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt K A
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.75, CO folds, BN folds, SB calls $0.65, BB folds
Flop ($1.75) 9 2 A (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.25, SB raises to $2.50, Hero calls $1.25
When you become x/mr here, I find it too tempting to call even though I know that there is a huge chance that he will fire a turn cb that I actually in hindsight could perhaps call but my experience and all exploitative study I've done says that I should fold to the turn cb and flop I just don't know.
Turn ($6.75) 9 2 A 5 (2 Players)
SB bets $4.75, Hero folds
Final Pot
SB wins $6.45

4 Comments

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Daz 11 years, 2 months ago

Its fine to be facing a turn bet, the real question is whether you ahead often enough to be making this call down. I do see AQ/AJ here, sometimes worse high pairs and occasionally a random 9x/bluff, but of course he is repping sets and two pairs usually Axx as in the suited A9/A2. 

The sample size is a bit too small to draw too much relevance to his stats besides maybe VPIP/PFR

With no reads you can either make a stand and get a read, or simply continue to fold and if you see more aggression then begin calling down

If he does have you beat, hopefully you win more when the roles are reversed and you size your bet bigger (better) to get stacks in

Ondrej Rysavy 11 years, 2 months ago

i dont fold again 48/42 with 70bbstack fish TPTK,his range is so crazy here ,from me ,just calldown ,hi will have for sure worse A,broadway card,9x, some PP.

We are almost on top of out range!

OlyBrah 11 years, 2 months ago

I kind of feel as though someone playing 48/42 is going to be aggressive enough to X/R worse here on this flop.


With that said, I think the decision has to be made on the flop. If you're calling flop, I don't see you should be folding on a turn that only helps A5. If you've got reads that he only X/R's two pairs or sets/trips, this is definitely a fold, but that's usually the play I'd expect from someone playing 48/4 or something and not from someone aggressive like Villain in this case.

You'd be amazed how frequently aggro-donks overvalue TP type hands, so I think stationing here and hoping he has a misplayed AT/AJ type hand, and adjusting for future reference if he shows two pair or something.

dynosoar 11 years, 2 months ago

he calls the flop getting 6:1. i dont think that justifies calling to the river. even if he has a worse ax, why do we need to calldown here? i feel like we should call turn reevaluate river, hes going to fire here a ton but less likely to barrel a3, etc. on the river. clickback on the flop would leave me to belive his range will contain more bluffs in this spot.

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