2/5 Live: Strange Turn Lead
Posted by UCBananaboy
Posted by
UCBananaboy
posted in
Mid Stakes
2/5 Live: Strange Turn Lead
2/5 game. Villain has played one orbit. During the orbit he played a single hand where he isolated a MP limper and triple-barreled Qx 6x 6x Tx Ax and showed AQs.
Effective stacks are $800.
BTN straddle for $10. Hero in HJ, villain to my immediate right.
Folded around to Villain who opens to $40. Hero 3b to $120 with Td Th. Folded around to villain who calls.
Flop ($255): Ah 7c 6d
Villain checks. Hero bets $50. Villain calls. (In hindsight, this was probably a mistake and I should have bet something closer to 1/2 pot).
Turn: ($355): 8h
Villain leads for $200
Hero: ???
All feedback would be appreciated on flop sizing, preflop decision to 3b, etc.
Loading 9 Comments...
I don't see much merit in having a preflop calling range in HJ facing a 8bb open with no money invested, so 3bet or fold is probably the options preflop. TT is well inside the hands you want to play here. I think 3bet range should be something like 88+, AQo+, ATs+, KJs+, QJs+. You can also add in more and more hands like ATs, A9s, KTs, QTs, JTs and T9s as his range gets wider than 16%.
You can cbet your entire range on the flop with a small size like you did or cbet larger and mix a lot. Either strategy is fine and TT is mostly a check if you polarize.
It's very difficult to make sense of villain play on the turn but with OK set outs, 3 good straight outs and the flush outs I lean towards a call or raise. However I don't see many really high EV outcomes and a few really bad outcomes for calling or raising. I just think there are a lot of strategies you are slightly +EV against. The tight ranges and flush getting there is what limits the upside because it's difficult for villain to show up with hands you do really well against. The small flop bet doesn't narrow his range too much though.
The long last part is probably an indicator of me being really uncertain about the play as well (contradictory ideas without being able to quantify how important each of them are).
Button straddle was on for $10 so raise is only 4x. I would argue you still want to playing 3-bet or fold in this spot, even vs smaller sizes. I feel like pricing the BU in is bad as he's getting good odds to play IP, and can happily squeeze regularly
Yeah, I had that in mind. The straddle doesn't improve odds for calling that much (same odds as vs 3.5x no straddle) and BTN coming along more often with position on you doesn't add EV for high card hands.
I misread the texture though. I thought it was a flush completing turn. Without a flush draw it's probably just a fold with TT blocking a T of hearth (blocking flush draw) and probably also without a hearth. There are just so few hands and strategies you do well against with TT.
I would bet about $100 on flop. This hits our range harder and we prefer to just take it down right now if possible. When we bet small like this we're just hoping to get to showdown which could be problematic if over cards start peeling off. As played I'm folding turn without more info on the player. Certain maniacs I may call down but in general most live players aren't bluffing in this spot.
Would cbetting smaller like this be a better strategy with something like KK (where we don't fear overcards), and TT better with a larger cbet?
In general and to keep things simple, yes I would prefer to bet smaller with a hand like KK-QQ as opposed to 1010 on this flop.
Easy fold on turn and bigger flop bet for sure. I think this sizing makes you look weaker, although I don't hate smaller-ish sizing. You're not risking as much to have him fold out all his non-Ax and possibly even JJ/QQ hands (I think he would fold 99 and reraise KK pre). Depends on villain's tendencies I guess, which is hard to know after only one orbit.
After he calls preflop and flop, we're almost certain his holdings include a strong A. Anything worse, with the exception of unlikely sets, would be suicidal for him.
I think villain's donk is pretty bad no matter what his holdings are - curious if others agree/disagree. If he has something like AK (which it kind of feel like he does - I can't think of much more than makes sense here) he's killing his action and preventing you from bluffing. Anything worse than AK, he's only getting called by better.
Thanks.
I was pretty lost and ultimately folded. He showed JsTs
Gross... especially given that you have two blockers to that exact hand, but indeed I think that's the product of a small flop cbet (I've made the same mistake more than I can count). Curious if he folds on the flop to $100, probably? I suppose that's the one hand where leading does make more sense.
Be the first to add a comment