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2/5 live fold or shove

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

2/5 live fold or shove

Just sat down at this table no info on any players, I am not going to post all the stack sizes just the players involved.

UTG( $1,500) opens for $15
Hero ($600, lost a couple of pots didn't feel like topping off) calls with 55
CO( villain $575, watched him for a couple of hands so no real info) calls

Flop $50
9d6h5d
UTG checks hero bets $35 villain flats UTG flats
Turn $155
Qs
UTG checks hero bets $115 villain raises to $320 UTG folds
Like mentioned above I have no info on villain, so when he raised I guess his range has to include
78d, 76d,99,66,AQd,Q9s, 65s,

Hero?
Do I shove flat or just fold?
I mean he could be raising here with all his made hands like top set and straights, top of his range.

15 Comments

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DrCooper 12 years ago
Too bad you don't have any reads on him yet.

Do you not think that combo draw hands / 2 pairs are likely to raise flop? It is unlikely he has picked up 2 pair on the turn. His bet size looks like he wants to get it in here and his value hands 78, 99, 66 also have you crushed... I think sigh and fold.
Edichka1 12 years ago
I guess after a "safe" turn for his hand he could raise 2pair or better here, really wet board that hits a lot of ranges.
Let me ask you this if we have mid set here do we fold also?
DrCooper 12 years ago
The decision to fold is pretty marginal with 55. But with 66 i think it becomes a call as there is only 99 that has us crushed (we still have a small amount of equity vs 78).
Edichka1 12 years ago
DrCooper
If you can take a look at this other hand I played, same scenario diff. Player.
Thx
nma 12 years ago
I'd shove with your stack, call if you were deeper.
nma 12 years ago
When is UTG ever opening then checking a made straight, set, or overpair on such a wet board?? If anything he might have like AQdd or KQdd something like that.. You have the nuts sir.. If he does show up with a set or a straight here that's just a cooler and he played his hand horribly.
Edichka1 12 years ago
UTG is not the villain in question the villain is behind me
nma 12 years ago
Oh my bad, doesn't change much though. He should be betting his made hands like 100% of the time.. He can't be possibly checking hoping you're going to bet that board. Once UTG checks villain will be betting all his nut hands really often because of the board texture. I'm never folding here. You bet, UTG flats, you think villain will just flat a set or a straight? Maybe 2 pair or like Q9 A9 QKs AQs etc...
ValHue 12 years ago
I would either call or jam back here. His range can also include things like over pairs and a lot of semi-bluffs. He could be trying to represent a strong Q in this situation floating your flop bet then going for a steal on the turn. He has no information on you either so it's hard to put you on a set with a 2/3 size flop bet. With the SPR being so favorable for a set and a and the chance he is on a semi-bluff I wouldn't fold in this spot. Based on information here I assigned his range as JJ+, 99, 66, AQs, AdTd+ (probably not AKs most of the time), Ad6d, KdQd, QdJd, QhJh, JdTd, JhTh, 87s, 7d6d, AQo. It is less likely for him to have things like overpairs because of the late timing of the raise. But because we know so little except that he called a 3x bet multiway preflop in position then I believe his range would be much wider than your description. This range gives you 77% equity on the turn and al signs would point to shove back.
Edichka1 12 years ago
I did give him a range of 2pr, QJ- AQd, once I bet the turn he did raise and UTG folded.
I mean do you think he would raise with 2pr or mid-top sets and straights more often on the turn? (which is horrible value wise if he doesn't raise the flop with a made hand)
ValHue 12 years ago
I would expect he is most likely to raise those hands on the flop with such a wet board on the flop. He would raise your flop bets probably to something high like between $100-$125 to give your drawing hands a bad price. Again he has no information on you either. He might slow-play a straight but less likely with a flush-draw on the board. You are also not to deep only a little more than 100BB. If you were 200BB+ than I might flat the turn bet and turn my hand into a bluff catcher. Playing rivers dependently.
BigFiszh 12 years ago
Against what "perceived range" do we have 55-60%?

I´d say it´s a bit dangerous to project our own thought process to sb. unknown. There´s absolutely no reason why he shouldn´t slowplay sets/straights on the flop - especially with Hero just "stabbing" and the open-raiser still being active.

And against a range that includes sets/straights (as OP did in his first post), we´re drawing pretty slim.
nutinsider 12 years ago
Hey big, I have hands like AdQd in his range, Q9s too. I also have hands like 10dJd, as well as AA and KK. Although I do think hands like overpairs and big draws simply flat the turn...that being said, Its not totally unreasonable for an opponent to check raise a turned flush dr+open ended or flush dr+top top type of hand. (QdJd KdJd, etc).

Basically, I think his range is wider than what you think his range is, I'd guess it to contain the following.

QQ+,99,66-55,Q9s,87s,AdQd,KdQd,KdJd,QdJd,JdTd

Whereas I assume you wouldn't include the overpairs, and some of those combo draws?
Michael Gazonda 12 years ago
For me, this is a spot where looking at multiple ranges is useful.

His most likely possible ranges are:
{tight "nut" hands - sets/straights} - we want to be very careful vs. this range
{loose "nut" hands - same as above, but now including 2 pair hands we're ahead of} - against this range, does your opponent fold weaker made hands if you jam? what's the best way to get the money in vs. those weaker hands?
{loose "nut" hand range + thin value with hands like AQ}

Then there would be more ranges with strong draws added in - straight + flush draws, pair + flush draws, nut flush draws

Then there would be ranges that include "pure" bluffs... maybe some A high, or middle pair type hands.

When you don't know anything about your opponent, it's easy to allow their range to be pretty wide... but this can be really misleading. If you look at multiple ranges, it can be a lot easier to guess which range or two are most likely, and go forward from there.

Sometimes it can be a really big mistake to play a certain way if your opponent is likely to have a much tighter or looser range than you're expecting. Like if you assume he's got a ton of different hands in his range, but he's really only raising better, how big of a mistake is it to continue? If he's much looser than you expect, how does that change what the right play is?

Then, the question becomes, how do you play vs. those ranges?

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