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2/4 Party: Facing overbet on the river

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

2/4 Party: Facing overbet on the river

SB: $417 (Hero)
BB: $400
Preflop ($6.00) (2 Players)
Hero was dealt T J
Hero raises to $10, BB calls $8
Flop ($24.00) J 4 6 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $16, BB raises to $60, Hero calls $44
Turn ($144.00) 4 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks
River ($144.00) Q (2 Players)
BB bets $210
Ive played ~1k hands with villain. I dont have exact stats as we played on the anonymous tables, but I would describe him as a solid reg who plays higher as well. We played 3 or 4 matches over the last 7 days and this is early on in a short match today. He overbet me probably twice before (not today though) once I folded and once I called and won (vs his bluff). I cant remember him being overly aggressive with flop checkraises, but this can also be selective memory. Not 100% certain about it.

Thoughts on this river are very much appreciated.

13 Comments

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WM2K 12 years, 2 months ago
I think I d bet the turn. Highly unlikely your beat and | think its better for your range. Now that we re here OTR its a real guessing game and our hand is somewhat faceup unless you check back the nuts OTT. Work out what your range is here and if this is the very best hand you ever show up with then I d make the call.
Swoop 12 years, 2 months ago
Turn is a tough decision in my opinion. Im crushed by his value range and might also wanna protect against flush and straight draws. Definitely debatable.

I did some math.

A call needs be correct ~59% of the time to break even (calling 210 to win 354). That being said: I stoved a range of sets, QJ, KJ, some AJ, flushdraws, straight draws and some air. Against those hands I am good ~65% of the time by the river, which would make a call the mathematically correct play. I didnt even include the occasional gutshot as I didnt remember him being overly aggressive with flop check raises.

I just feel like being a good player he has to know that basically any draw missed and my calling range should be fairly wide.
james 12 years, 2 months ago
"A call needs be correct ~59% of the time to break even (calling 210 to win 354)."

Your call only need to be right 37% of the time to break even ( 210/ 354+210= 0.37).
WM2K 12 years, 2 months ago
My problem with checking the turn is mostly how are we putting our ranges together here. This is especially important vs tough HU opponents as spots like this river come up and we re the one with the defined hand and facing a bet that we can t really make a great decision on. At least by betting we keep our range unclear and we get protection from some of the flop semi bluffs. If your planning on checking back a monster some % of the time I think we can check this back as well. I feel that having strong hands to cover our weaker ones like this is important so that villain can t just overbet really thin and therefore also bluff a ton knowing that this is pretty close to the top of it.
Swoop 12 years, 2 months ago
@ James
Youre right of course. We´re getting 1.69:1 or 37% on a call here. Havent done this in a while ^^ thanks.

@ WM2K
Once we check the turn here we have to check the turn with monsters as well. Thing is though: balance is beautiful, but in many hu games you only get like 100 hands vs a guy so it doesnt matter that much even more so on anonymous tables. That being said. I dont think there is one right answer here. He hasnt been very aggro with flop check raises so I didnt know what to make of it just yet. Didnt know if he would ship semi-bluffs and monsters over my turn bet, which would put me in a even tougher spot when betting.
brodyz 12 years, 2 months ago
i dont play HU but considering he just got caught overbet bluffing and now hes overbetting in a spot where he looks fos, i think i would lay this one down,
tehduper 12 years, 2 months ago
His 3betting tendencies matter a lot here, because the largest part of his value range by far is Jx imo. It's a lot harder to fold if you know he 3bets AJ/KJ often.
Swoop 12 years, 2 months ago
I cant tell you those stats for sure. His frequencies were different, which means (Im estimating on the exact %) one day he would 3bet 30% over 1 hour and the other day it was like 15%. 20% overall maybe. Assuming he is only 3betting his premiums (which he never is ofc) that range includes a lot of Jx type hands, which would then eliminate a lot of Jacks from his range when he is raising my cbet here.

The problem I have here is that I cant yet tell what his flop c/r range consists of. How many air type hands he would do that with etc.

JuStAWicKEdDud3 12 years, 2 months ago
this is a frequencecall for me. if i dont know alot about villain i have to play somewhat unexploitable and since JT is somewhat top of my range (exept maybe Q6 or AQ) i call river. i dont mind checking back JT in that spot but since our floatingrange is really wide i guess KJ is a bet/call OTT. the 4 OTT is good for our range since we rarely fold 4x OTF. wich means we dont have to bet too wide for value/balancing since we have alot of valuehands here.
Swoop 12 years, 2 months ago
I dont know about not folding 4x here on the flop. It was one his first flop check raises (at least that I remember) so I might give him credit the first time. That being said the 4 OTT is still a good card for us. With card removal it makes it less likely that he has a set of fours. Im now only really worried about 66. I put a lot of Jx combos in his 3betting range and thought I was looking at a lot of draws here, which would make a turn bet the way to go, but I opted not to for reasons I mentioned before.

He showed QJo btw. I would never have expected that as for 1) I thought he´d 3bet that a good amount of the time and 2) he wouldnt c/r me here (as he didnt before).

Thanks guys.
Parker Muir 12 years, 2 months ago
I think your line is good and I would be calling the river.

He just reps such an extremely narrow value range that I can't see a fold here after checking the turn. He can definitely show up with plenty of air type draws that checked the turn not expecting to get many folds but decide to bluff now. I also don't expect him to be CR QJ that much either, as you said.

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