HU. Fishy players limps button. This opponent can play atrociously and play decent -- it all depends on how he is running.

Button limps. We raise KhTs from BB to 16, button calls.

Flop is T56cch we bet 20, button calls. Pot is 72

Turn is 7h, we check, he bets 36, we call. Pot is 144.

River is 7s, we check, he bets 144. We…?

My analysis:

From an MDF perspective, we have to defend 50% of our range against a potsize bet.

As played on turn, our range of hands w/ SD value headed into river is:

AA-JJ, AT, KT, QT, JT, T9s, 87s, 97s.

This represents:

24 combos of AA-JJ
51 combos of Tx
4 combos of 7x

For a total of 69 combos

How do we construct our calling range on the river?

1. We want to call with all combos of 7x (4 combos)
2. We want to call with combos of Tx where we don’t block clubs or hearts

TXd/s would be 4 combos per kicker rank so 20 combos total

1. Overpairs with no club no heart

1 combo (i.e AdAs) per over pair rank so 4 combos total

Total combos: 4+20+4 = 28 which is somewhat short of the 34.5 combos we need to call with.

Absent reads, what do y’all think is the correct decision here? Unfortunately reads are tough against this opponent because they can play completely differently depending on they’re current state (tilted, drunk, etc.)