21$ 5K GTD Hyper Mega BTN open spot
Posted by Douggyfr3sh
Posted by Douggyfr3sh posted in Mid Stakes
21$ 5K GTD Hyper Mega BTN open spot
Game started at: 2017/7/28 1:40:10
Game ID: 968677916 3000/6000 $5,000 GTD - Hyper Turbo Mega Stack, Table 5 (Hold'em)
Seat 1: caseymullah23 (317667).
Seat 2: Douggyfr3sh (258261). <----- BTN 43bb
Seat 3: knotpeyyin (59700). 10bb
Seat 4: always_wp (115700). 19.2bb
Seat 5: Zonker133 (58696).
Seat 6: billwalton (152725).
Seat 9: FatSkinnyGuy (181524).
Player Douggyfr3sh received card: [Qc]
Player Douggyfr3sh received card: [4c]
Player Zonker133 folds
Player billwalton folds
Player FatSkinnyGuy folds
Player caseymullah23 folds
Player Douggyfr3sh allin (257661) <------ WHYY?
So basically in this spot it is folded to me on BTN with Q4s and SB has 10bb BB has 19.2bb
I decided to jam in game and I think it's a mistake.
I can verify with HRC analysis that this is not a nash jam, however vs. population tendencies it is somewhere between neutral and extremely slightly +EV. So close that even if I play pure jam or fold in this spot Q6s should be the bottom of my jam range. However, I don't think I should play push/fold here and I think I should have a non all in opening range to like 2.35x with lots of hands in it.
How do you guys go about building a strategy in this spot and filling in our non-allin range with value and bluffs?
I can model this spot in HRC to give me a 2.33x and an all in option, but the result is wonky and it basically seems to strongly prefer a jam or fold strategy. Is that really optimal here?
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