[20NL] Tough spot against a likely regular
Posted by ChaoRen123
Posted by
ChaoRen123
posted in
Low Stakes
[20NL] Tough spot against a likely regular
Blinds: $0.10/$0.20 (5 Players)
SB: $20.10 (Hero)
BB: $20.00
UTG: $22.19
CO: $27.09
BN: $21.80
BB: $20.00
UTG: $22.19
CO: $27.09
BN: $21.80
Preflop
($0.30)
Hero is SB with
T
A
, ,
Hey guys, bb is likely a nitty regular, running 24/10/2 over 120 hands. (keep in mind that this is 5 handed)
Flop
($1.24)
K
4
A
,
Turn
($2.04)
K
4
A
6
, ,
I think given the profile betting is better than checking here. But I don't want to fall into something too assumptive like assuming that he's not gonna bluff his draws versus this weak check.
River
($5.14)
K
4
A
6
9
, ,
He reps A6, K9, A9, and that's almost it. I don't think he is ever betting worst for value here. But I think there is something inconsistent with my thought process if I check a hand this string on the turn to think that this very good runout is a tough spot.
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I don't know if this is correct, but I usually check/call flop here with AT. Top pair marginal kicker is not something with which I'm looking for three streets of value, especially OOP. If villain checks behind on flop, we're in great shape and can value bet both turn and river.
Hey, on this particular flop I will cbet at a very high frequency.
Plus I have a bunch of worst Ax to check OTF. T kicker is very good bvb imo.
You are correct that blind vs blind, AT is a pretty strong hand. Tough spot: I don't know what is the correct play.
ChaoRen123 I have been thinking about this, and I have a follow-up question regarding this spot.
When you check the turn, are you doing it to induce bluffs or is it for pot control? If it's the former, don't you need to call down with this favorable runout?
If it's the latter case, you could also check flop, right? That way, we would not encounter this tough spot.
I checked in game because I thought that agaisnt a nitty profile, I would get paid of enough by worst with 3barrels, so I decided to go for only 2 streets. I checked turn for balance purposes OOP (even thought balance is never a thing against this profile :/)
Against this type of player, can't tell if the B/X/B, X/B/B or B/B/XC is the best line. X/B/B would for sure avoid a tough spot OTR, but at the same time we are missing some value on some draws... I really don't know man! :D
I guess as played a standart call OTR, especially BvB.
quite wide spot. Villain can have many value combos ~50, and many possible bluffs QJ,JT, FD and BDFD. Though I'm not sure he will fire everything always on the turn, and river. Still this one is decent bluffcatcher and probably best pair of Ace we can have (strength rank)
This guy seems to be trending towards passive. Against guys like that, bet/folding turn will probably be best. As played, I cant really see him betting an ace here that you beat. I expect him to have some combos of AQ and AJ here (this is based on the stats you listed, and I am not putting too much stock in a small sample), 444, 2 pr+. I would bet flop, bet/fold turn and check/evaluate rivers.
Grunching.
I think the turn check is pretty questionable. BvB, villain can be calling preflop and flop with a lot of worse aces as well as sticky cc or Kx hands, which you don't really want to give a free card to, imo.
As played, my gut is that I think you need to check/call turn and river.
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