[20NL] Pretty lost with this hand
Posted by ChaoRen123
Posted by
ChaoRen123
posted in
Low Stakes
[20NL] Pretty lost with this hand
Blinds: $0.10/$0.20 (5 Players)
UTG: $5.83
CO: $47.04
BN: $20.00
SB: $21.29 (Hero)
BB: $15.26
CO: $47.04
BN: $20.00
SB: $21.29 (Hero)
BB: $15.26
Hey, villain is unknown :)
Preflop
($0.30)
Hero is SB with
Q
Q
, , , , ,
Flop
($4.60)
4
7
9
, , ,
Turn
($14.60)
4
7
9
K
, ,
So I guess my decision point is here OTT, as I only have 1 psb left. So I have 2 options IMO: either check/call or just jam. I think jamming is a bit too thin as on equilab I have only 47% EQ, and the range I get called by destroys me. At this point I think I can't x/fold though.
River
($29.20)
4
7
9
K
3
, ,
Loading 7 Comments...
Think main issue is the flop. Betting or checking seem fine as its SB vs CO so your range is presumably quite linear and hits this board fairly often too. I wouldn't generally want to x/r QQ without a diamond on the flop. x/c might be better if you are going to check.
As played, turn isn't great but K shouldn't hit either range particularly hard and a lot of villains will just get it in with their strong hands on the flop. He has a lot of draws in his range but at the same time, many people will just check these back. Its probably close but with only 30bb left behind for the river, you may as well x/jam if you're going to be calling turn as you aren't folding river anyways and hes probably not folding anything that bets the turn.
How are you getting only 47% equity on the turn with equilab? I'm getting way more than that. Or do you mean 47% againts calling range vs. shove?
I think our hand is easily strong enough to shove, villains flushdraws are pretty much forced to call a shove and we should get some calls from JJ/TT/9x aswell.
Yeah I think I didn't give him enough gutshots and 9x. mainly sets / flushdraws / straight draws / 97s / pair+ flushdraws.
Yeah I realize that we are not crushed at all by his calling range if he does call flushdraws here. Interesting that you say he has to call his flush draws, wouldn't have guessed that alone.
However I also realize that even if he folds almost all of them fdraws, we are still ahead with a shove :)
Thanks for your help!
I'm gonna have to correct myself a little bit: flushdraws aren't necessarily forced to call here, in fact now that I look at it even AdQd has a hard time calling. But what is happening is that by shoving we get tons of protection if we make villain fold flushdraws. So it's really good for us to get folds from flushdraws and even better if we get called.
Keep in mind that we don't need 50% equity or more in order to shove, because there are other merits to shoving (protection, which is very relevant in this situation).
Againts a range of KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, 99/77/44, JJ/TT without a diamond and T9s, we have 43% equity. Should be enough to shove given how much protection we're getting (flushdraws have 20%+ and even pairs have some equity still). Not to mention that he might not slowplay all the sets. Also forgot to add pair+flushdraws (with 7d).
Yeah, that reminds mo of a Nick Howard stream where he talked about the conditions to make a good thin/protection value bet: the first is fold equity, the second is equity of our hand versus the range we get called by. A good protection bet is determined by these two factors, who interact as communicating vessels :)
Bet flop, because max. value from pairs, draws, overcards. Think about a check if villain is agressive and always bets IP after a check.
Also dont like to check QQ, better to take this line with AA, because you never turn overcards,
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