[20NL] Is this just a setup?
Posted by ChaoRen123
Posted by
ChaoRen123
posted in
Low Stakes
[20NL] Is this just a setup?
Blinds: $0.10/$0.20 (5 Players)
SB: $12.00
BB: $32.84
UTG: $46.31
CO: $20.00 (Hero)
BN: $22.69
BB: $32.84
UTG: $46.31
CO: $20.00 (Hero)
BN: $22.69
Preflop
($0.30)
Hero is CO with
A
A
, ,
Hey guys, HH problem: villain is not UTG, he's in the BB. He is unknown.
Flop
($1.34)
3
J
K
, , ,
Turn
($5.84)
3
J
K
6
,
River
($14.64)
3
J
K
6
5
,
I feel like AK without a spade makes a better bluffctacher, my range is uncapped, and x/r 3barrels is an underbluffed line. But still, all draws missed (this runout is really good as it does not pair a lot of draws) and this might be too assumptive to assume that he doesn't bluff a lot here. So I guess it just ends up being a call?
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When he raises you on the flop he must be having 2p or a set of threes or he must be on some kind of draw FD or straight,)
But when he bets turn and river big and out of position I think you have to give him credit and fold river
feels like a fold to me. Don't think opponent defending CO wide enough to have enough bluffs which he follow through 3 streets. Certainly hard to have anything which snap calls expect nut hands, all AA,AK,KQ are bluffcatchers.
We can go back to flop, to see if you cbetting a lot or not? And how average opponent on your stacks is playing(how other people cbet and what size using)?
Think you can fold river. Would prefer to be bluff catching with AK rather than AA blocking 2 pair but in general like you say this is going to be underbluffed
Don't you think these close to psb OTT + close to psb OTR are super underbluffed lines?
He's repping really a few value combos but I guess you can confortably find a fold OTR given the fact this is a very underbluffed line, taking into account those sizings.
Yeah totally agree with all of you guys, I think this is overall really unerbluffed and as Mancuso said, even more with the sizings used.
Can someone pls explain : underbluffed to me pls ? Soz!!!
underbluffed means that a player is bluffing less than optimally.
So we asume he is almost never bluffing with this sizing...
Not only by sizing, but he went for XR B B with big bets on the flop, turn and river... This is super strong
What do folks think about 3bet/folding the flop?
Don't like it
1) we kinda have to call vs a 4bet-jam getting roughly 33% odds that we have against a combo draw+sets+2pairs+ some Ahigh flushdraws
2) If we ever 3bet/fold, we are wasting a ton of equity. It is just higher EV as a call imo.
I think we ca do some combo counting on the flop to get an idea:
value:
3times 33
6-9times KJ
2times K2s
monsterdraws: 2-4
OESD: 15
flushdraw: around 20
So if he is an aggressive guy he can and will semibluff a lot. If you fold AA what hands do you call with on this river, which is one of the better rivers?
I was thinking about other thing, if we don't call AA,AK means we just fold close to everything. But calling all AK/AA without a spade seems ambition imo, have to call some of those in case villain actually clicking buttons/overbluffing
Alright I will be the black sheep of the post... I am solver-less on this one...
FLOP - Looks good. Would rather see ~33% here but this size is fine.
TURN - Looks good. Just let villain hang themselves with bluffs.
RIVER - Call. Too assumptive with not enough information to fold to a shove here. You only need to be good less than 1/3 of the time to make it a break-even call. Villain is going to have to be very careful when picking his bluffs here to make sure to not over-bluff. Some players are capable of shutting down with the right hands but it is way too easy to over-bluff in this spot.
If you call the turn with intention to fold on this river when all his draws missed, you need to have a decent read that villain is going to check most of his bluffs. Which is I would say too assumptive.
I know that this is pretty underbluffed line which allows us to make some exploitative folds, but I don't have enough confidence to say that villain is checking the river with most of his turn bluffs, so I would either fold already on the turn or just call down turn and rivers like this
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