[20NL] Is this just a setup?

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[20NL] Is this just a setup?

Blinds: $0.10/$0.20 (5 Players) SB: $12.00
BB: $32.84
UTG: $46.31
CO: $20.00 (Hero)
BN: $22.69
Preflop ($0.30) Hero is CO with A A
Hero raises to $0.62, 2 folds, UTG calls $0.42
Hey guys, HH problem: villain is not UTG, he's in the BB. He is unknown.
Flop ($1.34) 3 J K
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.55, UTG raises to $2.25, Hero calls $1.70
Turn ($5.84) 3 J K 6
UTG bets $4.40, Hero calls $4.40
River ($14.64) 3 J K 6 5
UTG bets $14.64, Hero calls $12.73 and is all in
I feel like AK without a spade makes a better bluffctacher, my range is uncapped, and x/r 3barrels is an underbluffed line. But still, all draws missed (this runout is really good as it does not pair a lot of draws) and this might be too assumptive to assume that he doesn't bluff a lot here. So I guess it just ends up being a call?

16 Comments

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Kingetje123 6 years, 3 months ago

When he raises you on the flop he must be having 2p or a set of threes or he must be on some kind of draw FD or straight,)

But when he bets turn and river big and out of position I think you have to give him credit and fold river

Jeff_ 6 years, 3 months ago

feels like a fold to me. Don't think opponent defending CO wide enough to have enough bluffs which he follow through 3 streets. Certainly hard to have anything which snap calls expect nut hands, all AA,AK,KQ are bluffcatchers.
We can go back to flop, to see if you cbetting a lot or not? And how average opponent on your stacks is playing(how other people cbet and what size using)?

frontdoorbackdoor 6 years, 3 months ago

Think you can fold river. Would prefer to be bluff catching with AK rather than AA blocking 2 pair but in general like you say this is going to be underbluffed

Wallmonger 6 years, 3 months ago

He's repping really a few value combos but I guess you can confortably find a fold OTR given the fact this is a very underbluffed line, taking into account those sizings.

devwil 6 years, 3 months ago

What do folks think about 3bet/folding the flop?

ChaoRen123 6 years, 3 months ago

Don't like it

1) we kinda have to call vs a 4bet-jam getting roughly 33% odds that we have against a combo draw+sets+2pairs+ some Ahigh flushdraws

2) If we ever 3bet/fold, we are wasting a ton of equity. It is just higher EV as a call imo.

weltcheftrainer 6 years, 3 months ago

I think we ca do some combo counting on the flop to get an idea:

value:

3times 33
6-9times KJ
2times K2s

monsterdraws: 2-4
OESD: 15
flushdraw: around 20

So if he is an aggressive guy he can and will semibluff a lot. If you fold AA what hands do you call with on this river, which is one of the better rivers?

Jeff_ 6 years, 3 months ago

If you fold AA what hands do you call with on this river, which is
one of the better rivers?

I was thinking about other thing, if we don't call AA,AK means we just fold close to everything. But calling all AK/AA without a spade seems ambition imo, have to call some of those in case villain actually clicking buttons/overbluffing

SnowAndFire 6 years, 3 months ago

Alright I will be the black sheep of the post... I am solver-less on this one...

FLOP - Looks good. Would rather see ~33% here but this size is fine.

TURN - Looks good. Just let villain hang themselves with bluffs.

RIVER - Call. Too assumptive with not enough information to fold to a shove here. You only need to be good less than 1/3 of the time to make it a break-even call. Villain is going to have to be very careful when picking his bluffs here to make sure to not over-bluff. Some players are capable of shutting down with the right hands but it is way too easy to over-bluff in this spot.

MatoStar 6 years, 3 months ago

If you call the turn with intention to fold on this river when all his draws missed, you need to have a decent read that villain is going to check most of his bluffs. Which is I would say too assumptive.
I know that this is pretty underbluffed line which allows us to make some exploitative folds, but I don't have enough confidence to say that villain is checking the river with most of his turn bluffs, so I would either fold already on the turn or just call down turn and rivers like this

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