[20NL] Do we have to fold the turn?
Posted by ChaoRen123
Posted by
ChaoRen123
posted in
Low Stakes
[20NL] Do we have to fold the turn?
Blinds: $0.10/$0.20 (5 Players)
SB: $20.00
BB: $8.00
UTG: $14.29
CO: $25.29 (Hero)
BN: $13.45
BB: $8.00
UTG: $14.29
CO: $25.29 (Hero)
BN: $13.45
Hey, Villains are both likely fishes.
Preflop
($0.30)
Hero is CO with
Q
T
, , , ,
Flop
($1.81)
T
6
5
, ,
Afterwards I think I prefer to check with a hand that has less value/protection needed, such as T9s or T8s. Here against two fishes, Q kicker is maybe a bit to high to check.
Turn
($1.81)
T
6
5
4
, , ,
This is underbluffed, and when he raises, villain has 4$ behind. So can we fold?
Loading 15 Comments...
cbetting agaisnt 2 recs is going to be higher ev i think, as played fold
Yeah agreed, thanks! :)
Agreed with Bingo 123 .
I'd rather Cbet vs two recs here. Lots of overcalls by them.
Probably a two streets for value when unimproved in safe boards.
And as played, I'd rather just fold. If you call here and river is a brick, are you calling again? You must think already on river plays, e.g., are we overfolding QT if he bets again on a brick river and we fold?
I prefer to check this hand and then bet with AT/KT so that we make sure that we are dominating when the fish also have top pairs. because they will play extremely face-up on the turn, especially when the pot is multi-way, so we can just exploit them harder on turns/rivers when it goes xxx than we can by c-betting this hand, imo. and we aren't really concerned about any turn cards, the K we block a bunch of the Kx combos and the Ax turn leaves villains playing extremely passively so you aren't likely to get bluffed off of your hand ever unless they have you beat.
as played I like the bet/fold and I like your line.
Hey, ok I get the idea behind checking here. As we mainly have two streets of value, this just simplifies the hand to get max value :D
yeah exactly, you don't wanna over complicate how to play your ranges, and it's important to have some top pairs in your checking ranges, even vs fish.
We would dominate their top pair hands often here so there's more incentive to bet.
Also, by checking you allow villain to put in some spots where you don't want to be and sometimes force you to fold the best hand.
I would prefer to bet 2 streets and then fold to a big river bet than, check and guess all the way down
we dominate a couple of combos such as JT and T9 and perhaps T8 but we still lose to AT and KT. so around 50% of the Tx that are calling us on the flop we lose to. and some of the weaker Tx will be folded on subsequent streets so we are now rapidly heading towards value-owning ourselves. and we are also 3 ways, our flop c-betting range cannot be as wide and as aggressive than it would be if we were HU. we are also OOP to the button who has position on us on all 3 streets, should be play them.
we also lose to sets, 2 pairs and the odd over pair such as JJ that the button chose to flat with. so pretty quickly you can see that c betting QT 3 ways and then betting either flop/turn or flop/river is pretty dicey. and vs a raise we pretty much just have to fold straight away, which is a disaster when the bb has a hand like an open ender or something.
you are basically saying that you are betting to avoid them betting and you being put in to a bluff catching spot, well sometimes you have to get in to tough spots in poker because that is where your true edge will come from, when you can work them out better than your opponent.
also, if we start betting almost all of our Tx on the flop that leaves our turn range extremely weak when the flop goes xxx. bb can lead wider, such as hands as weak as second pair, and we cannot delayed c bet almost at all because we have 0 value hands unless we bink something on the turn.
and once we x back villains will be more suspicious of our delayed turn bets because they will think we will bet all of our strong hands on the flop, thus increasing the likelihood that they are going to call us twice with hands as weak as 2nd or even 3rd pair.
Demondoink
Very nice reply... I agree with you 100% beside one fact... you assume villains are going to stay in the hand with resonable ranges. If both are fishy, their calling range is wide, even Ahigh is part of it.
Personally I would start to bet 1/3 and go from there
Sure we lost vs these holdings, but their calling range is wider than that
In my pool, I'm pretty confident a fish with an open ender is just calling here... so we can fold very easy vs a turn raise.
This seems to be extracted from the Janda's book :D... well, I see your point and I gotta admit that this is a leak of mine. You are 100% right
I wouldn't bet all Tx, T9 is a check I think.
Also, even if I see your theory, don't you forget we are up against 2 fishes? So they are somewhat retarded and don't pick up any from our play?
Wallmonger nice reply as well. I am in too many conversations with you simultaneously but I agree with your post so I am not going to quote any more of it :P haha.
completely agree, if we have two huge calling station fishes then it should be slightly higher EV to c bet QT than it would be to x. but until I know that, I would still always x this hand because even if I know they are both fish I do not know if they are bluffy fish, station fish or nitty fish. and only vs station fish would c betting this hand be higher EV than checking imo. so because 66% of the time they would be one of the two other categories of fish, I would deviate towards always checking this hand and then betting hands like bottom/middle sets, AT/KT and then over pairs of course.
ChaoRen123
You mentioned this quite a lot, I was thinking if you have some solid data to back up this. I mean, the brain isn't capable to understand frequencies and you could be mislead here...
OTF, I would bet 1/2
Yep, there are several datapoints to aprove this:
1) 3way pot are underfbluffed
2) delayed check/raises oop are underbluffed
3) the average postflop stats of shortstackers/fishes in my field are passive.
So i cannot argue against it
I asked because I think, people are way to biased without any data to back up their claims... but if you have them, more power to you
those are the best spots to bluff ;)
I think checking the flop created unnecessary problems on the turn.
I think that folding the turn is fine, but this is a flop bet for sure for me.
You have the best hand OTF a lot of the time, but it's not so good that you can get cute and not worry about protecting or denying equity.
Villains have plenty of calls with worse and I'm not happy to give a free card.
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