[20NL] 2nd flush in a squeezed pot
Posted by ChaoRen123
Posted by
ChaoRen123
posted in
Low Stakes
[20NL] 2nd flush in a squeezed pot
Blinds: $0.10/$0.20 (5 Players)
CO: $21.83
BN: $13.39
SB: $20.06 (Hero)
BB: $20.00
UTG: $0.00
BN: $13.39
SB: $20.06 (Hero)
BB: $20.00
UTG: $0.00
Hey, villains are both unknown, a bit reggish
Preflop
($0.30)
Hero is SB with
K
Q
, , , , ,
Flop
($6.40)
2
9
7
,
Turn
($11.20)
2
9
7
K
, ,
Decided to check this time, mainly to pot control as I don't think I can put our whole stacks in for value.
River
($15.60)
2
9
7
K
7
, ,
His turn bet was a bit weird, I think he can sometimes do this with a set (?). So OTR I think he has a good amount of value hands...
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Well played, I wouldnt squeeze this pre tho.
Don't think he's value betting worse here and this river isn't one that people tend to bluff a lot on. Its also difficult for him to have bluffs that float this flop as they all have showdown value. This is a likely a clear call from GTO perspective as you don't get here with many better hands but if he's not turning pairs into.bluffs then it's a lot closer and maybe make a case for exploitatively folding. Squeeze pre is fine imo just be mindful of not overdoing it.
Preflop and flop are fine, I think, but I don't like your turn line, nor your justification for it. You are (only) 100 BBs deep, and you have the second nuts! If you check on the turn, it has to be to trap, not for pot control! If you think your hand is not strong enough to CRAI with, then at least bet it for value! The board pairing OTR obviously sucks, and villain will "have it" often. But on the other hand, in villain's shoes, I would bet my entire range on this river, given how weak your line looks.
I think that once I call the turn, betting the river with a large sizing is kind of spewy though
Hi, ChaoRen123
Interesting thoughts you have.
But I have some simple counter-arguments.
If you are folding this combo, which combos are you calling?
I'm afraid that if you are folding this, you'll be overfolding A LOT and villain can profitable bet any two cards on the river.
Also, you are just check-calling OTT and checking again OTR. Villain has the opportunity to think that you are weak and capped. Trying to force you a fold.
A good exercise to do is selecting all the combos in your range and playing versus this line simulating that you are playing each combo at the same time. Then, you start to exclude your folds, raises, etc and reach to the river with the combos that you Cbet OTF and XC on the turn. Then, you can analyse OTR if you are overfolding by excluding weaker combos than KsQc.
Yeah obv GTO or MDF-wise folding his is a disaster. But I am way more concerned about the population tendencies and playing an exploitative strategy at these stakes :/
Once I call the turn I think only an aggressive guy will barrel with worse hands, and I don't have the read the he is at all... My field is overall very passive
But you dominate worse value bets. Also, he can bluff vs your line.
Anyway, if you have strong reads about the field and the field won't value bet worse or bluff, just fold.
I have some reads about the population but idk is this is sufficient in this particular case because of the reasons you talked about :/
do you think we will see Jc often here or worse? If that is the case, I guess it changes everything. I guess that I am too nitty on 4 to flush boards...
You have to be winning around 29% of the time (excluding rake).
Which means that you just have to call and win 29% of the time (it includes his bluffs and worse value bets).
If he has something like 20 combos that are beating you (and I'm being pessimistic here), you must find only 8 combos that you are beating (also, including bluffs and worse value bets).
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