200z turning top pair into bluff otr

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

200z turning top pair into bluff otr

BN: $198.30
SB: $223
BB: $200
UTG: $297.07
HJ: $205.59
CO: $407.19 (Hero)
Preflop ($3.00) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt T J
UTG folds, HJ folds, Hero raises to $6, BN calls $6, SB folds, BB folds
Flop ($15.00) 5 J 5 (2 Players)
Hero bets $8.94, BN calls $8.94
Turn ($32.88) 5 J 5 3 (2 Players)
Hero checks, BN bets $22, Hero calls $22
River ($76.88) 5 J 5 3 9 (2 Players)
Hero checks, BN bets $44, Hero raises to $370.25, and is all in

villain is some really loose reg running 30/25 with 12% 3bet  and like to barrel a lot post

SB was some kind of fish and BB is a good reg,  usually don't open this type of hands in this spot before I expected to get 3bet a lot, but it's kind of whatever.

Turn I think our hands isn't cool when facing a raise and given the board run out it's better to c/c at least street.

river think we need to check our entire range vs someone who like to barrel a lot. and he quickly bets out a sizing that is a bit small for good value hands/bluffs and bit big for medium strong hands.  

villain would be 3betting JJ+ 100% for obv reasons.  probably AJ most of the time, and value betting anything less than KJ would be too thin.  

with respect to his 5x, not much really, one combo of 55 and there are some decent 56s/75s/54s and A5s combos but i think he would be 3betting all of them(maybe flat A5s when he is in some mood), but I definitely expect sizing wise to be bigger on the turn especially now there are two Fds  

and he can't really have 3s and 9s,  calling 3s on the flop would be rly bad unless i'm some kind of donk who like to fold on the turn and river.   9s wouldn't rly bet ott as he won't fold out any better. 

So just don't think he has much, and our range is much stronger than his and our hand is not good enough to c/c. so jamming and fold out his better Jx hands when he has it, and some flushes( we have the Jc which definitely helps)


thoughts?


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