200z I made a thin call on the turn and rivered top two facing a shove.
Posted by ssg
Posted by
ssg
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Mid Stakes
200z I made a thin call on the turn and rivered top two facing a shove.
SB: $393.94 (Hero)
BB: $218.28
UTG: $207.40
HJ: $260.96
CO: $445.50
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, BN raises to $4, Hero raises to $14, BB folds, BN calls $10
I probably played horriblely bad vs this villain but still want to hear some thoughts.
villain is a reg running 25/19/6.5 btn steal 63% fold to 3b 77%.
flop looks like a standard bet given we have Ah, but could be argue for a check since his fold to 3b is pretty high.
and his fold to flop cb is 67% so I expect him to fold a lot.
Turn I still like betting for value/protection. and he raises. I'm not sure how often he is flatting a set on the flop given the flush draw, I usually would just fold to this kind of passive player but somehow decided to call for &$(#@$ reason. after tanking for a while.
River it's actually a good card for us, I don't see many flushes in villain's range as we have Ah and Kh got rivered, and we could have all the flushes given that we called the turn. So I checked expecting him to check back most of his range sometime including his sets, as jamming sets would be pretty thin on the river vs our calling range ott.
But he quickly jams, I just really can't put him on a flush here as he seem pretty passive so I don't really expect him to semi-bluff raise the turn. and I don't think passive guy could jam that river with a set vs hero's range which have more nutted flush than he does.
Thoughts?
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With this fold to 3b percentage I don't think we can give all his sets. Maybe 1/3-2/3 of 55s and whole 88s combos but 22s I don't think it is reasonable to put into it.
His play is very strange OTR. His turn play I like a lot with 88s because the ace on the turn hits your range pretty hard and make more likely that he will get paid off.
When you check the river, you represent that you don't have a flush. That is huge in terms of combos because even tough you don't have many of them in your range, specially when the Kh hits, you have basically AhQh, QhJh, JhTh, 9h8h and don't know if you are 3betting pre all of those but from the SB I think it is ok.
He may raise some flush draws that failed to pick up the backdoor gutter or oesd because he can't profitably call with them anymore and that is fine to do but not in a card that smashes your range. But he may do it. Having 6 high/7 high/9 highOTR sucks and he may think that way.
When he jams it is very much a fold for me because he does not have that many bluffs on his range, maybe 7c6c, 9c7c and some gutters that missed but I don't think it is very likely to shove this range on cards that smashes your 3betting range. He is very unbalanced towards value there and you are getting a very bad price. I rather fold. Having A8 is way better than AK on this spot, for example.
I think it is a very easy fold, if this guy folds to 3bets so much he will indeed only have hands that beat you. He is getting a lot of chips in against an uncapped range. I think we can play maximum exploitatively here by folding the turn already untill we know he is capable of bluffing spots like this, which I suspect is extremely rare against an unknown let alone someone who folds to 3bets and CB's so much.
i certainly think he setmines all pp. Calling sets on the flop is standard imo, I'm not so sure why he raise turn when u have loads of ax. His sizing is a bit odd imo, would make more sense to do a little bigger so he gets a psb. Even if it's close to psb.
I think it's wp if we fold river, not sure though. But everything get there and I don't think he bluffs very often taking this line.
I think it's a relatively easy fold, any time you rep AK at 200nl, hit a board that smashes AK and get raised or shoved on, just gotta fold. One thing in your favour is that I do think sets get flop raised a decent % of the time, but that's about all. I can see flushes playing this way too.
43hh ?
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