200z -2nd pair 3b pot

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200z -2nd pair 3b pot

BN: $240.89 (Hero)
SB: $227.57
BB: $263.48
UTG: $487.38
HJ: $200
CO: $258.11
villain is nitty reg, 17/13/6.7, sb 3bet vs steal 10%
Preflop ($3.00) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt Q K
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $4, SB raises to $14, BB folds, Hero calls $10
Flop ($31.00) Q 4 9 (2 Players)
SB bets $18, Hero calls $18
Turn ($67.00) Q 4 9 A (2 Players)
SB bets $46, Hero calls $46
River ($159.00) Q 4 9 A T (2 Players)
SB checks
Does anyone consider bluffing this river when checked to or is that crazy?

Feel like the board ran out pretty good for us, we hold the nut blocker and block QQ/KJ/AQ which could all play this way and call river. If he 3bet like 16+% from the sb I would never consider this, but vs 10% it feels like we're probably not good too often.

7 Comments

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UpUpAndAway 10 years, 11 months ago

I like your idea of a river jam, I think it should net us more than checking down since we can fold out a bunch of Ax, 2 pair, and likely even sets vs most villains.

Schu 10 years, 11 months ago

there are a lot of possibilities on that board, and one thing is most certain... you're not going to win unless you bet. your analysis about blockers is good, but does this player have a fold in them as far as his table presence is concerned?

I say try and ship it.

PokerIsHard 10 years, 11 months ago

I don't think a reg will ever fold Ax on the river, especially when he checks the river (at least on the sites I am playing, must be different on PS.com).


I take my SD value.

Tyler Forrester 10 years, 11 months ago

It's probably close. It depends alot on your slowplaying frequencies. I'm not going to try to guess on the c/c range of a 17/13 in a SB vs BT spot. Its just too infrequent. GTO is the only way to go. 

ohgodwhy 10 years, 11 months ago

What do you rep though? A flush is unlikely since so many of the high cards are dead and you might as well have raised somewhere, I'd also expect you to raise 2p+ somewhere before the river most of the time. And how do you frequently get to the river with KJ?

You have it going for you that you can hardly have any bluffs admittedly.

Nick Howard 10 years, 11 months ago

I'm not totally sold that KQ doesn't have some non-zero amount of equity to check back river.  that being said, if it's the same relative value as all other weak pairs in your range, then it's just a blocker exercise to find the best river bluffs.  I think you should definitely be jamming river with some pairs as bluffs, unless you think villain never vbets turn with AK (which is actually very realistic especially when you block Kh).  


UpUpAndAway 10 years, 11 months ago

KQ definitely has some non-zero amount of equity for sure. But I think against the standard 200nl nit, jamming the river should be more +EV than checking back with this partucular hand.

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