200nl zoom herocall spot?
Posted by Hyrveli
Posted by
Hyrveli
posted in
Mid Stakes
200nl zoom herocall spot?
BN: $200
SB: $441.49 (Hero)
BB: $335.19
UTG: $200
HJ: $406.42
CO: $200
SB: $441.49 (Hero)
BB: $335.19
UTG: $200
HJ: $406.42
CO: $200
Preflop
($3.00)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
J
A
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, BN folds, Hero raises to $6, BB calls $4
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, BN folds, Hero raises to $6, BB calls $4
Flop
($13.00)
8
3
4
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
BB bets $8.59,
Hero raises to $30,
BB calls $21.41
Turn
($73.00)
8
3
4
Q
(2 Players)
Hero bets $59,
BB calls $59
River
($191.00)
8
3
4
Q
4
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
BB bets $140.40
When I check on the river I expect to lose something like 95% of the time when Villain checks back, but when he bets the river the situation suddenly becomes interesting. I feel like the range of hands that Villain will bet for value is extremely thin given my range that looks extremely polarized and very much weighted towards air. The obvious valuehands that BB will bet here are sets, but they also will put in more money some % of the time on earlier streets and 44 is severely discounted because of card removal. Other valuehands could include A5ss, A2ss, 65ss and various 8xss. There are also a few possible combos of Q4s and maybe 84s. I really don't think that Villain will be valuebetting anything less than a flush in this spot, and something like AQ KQ is discounted because of the preflop action. I'm not completely positive whether even small flushes will bet here.
Now for the bluff portion of villains range. First lets determine the hands that Villain gets here with on the river that I'm ahead of: 65s, Axdd are two groups of hands that I believe Villain will play exactly like this the majority of the time. Villain will also have some % of Kxdd combos and other flushdraws, even though me having the Jd hurts me in this spot. He might also have stuff like A5 if he thinks my line is FOS, but if that's the case the question becomes whether he will bluff with A-high on the river. Even though there are quite a few combos of possible draws BB can have here the main concern is how often he will turn A-high into a bluff, which I do think will happen here most of the time.
I feel like this is an extremely close spot that could go either way, even though calling here is of course extremely exploitable. After stoving some ranges I'm currently leaning towards a fold. Do you think my assumptions are valid? Why / why not? Are there any factors I'm neglecting to consider?
Loading 2 Comments...
I disagree with this. Maybe I don't call down enough because I disagree, but this line looks quite monstrous to me. It's so hard to balance check/raising as the PFR, especially deep, so I assume most people do it for value until they show me otherwise. I would put you on sets and overpairs here. That doesn't mean villain won't try a bluff though - FH/Quads is only 10 combos, and JJ/TT/KK/AA is 24. He might see your line as getting defensive with some of those overpairs hoping to induce a bluff, and this is the real problem.
I can certainly concoct a reasonable looking stove where it's a snap call for you
Board: 8d 3s 4d Qs 4s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.909% 40.91% 00.00% 9 0.00 { AcJd }
Hand 1: 59.091% 59.09% 00.00% 13 0.00 { 88, 44-33, AdTd, Ad9d, As8s, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, As5s, Ad3d, Ad2d, As2s, KdQd, 65s }
And if you take out all the missed diamond draws your equity drops to 20%. I feel like you are somewhere in that range. You need 29.7% to call, and if villain bluffs half the flush draws I included above you have 33.3%. This isn't what I expected to say when I started looking at stove, but I think it's a call on the river.
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