200nl zoom herocall spot?

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

200nl zoom herocall spot?

BN: $200
SB: $441.49 (Hero)
BB: $335.19
UTG: $200
HJ: $406.42
CO: $200
Preflop ($3.00) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt J A
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, BN folds, Hero raises to $6, BB calls $4
Flop ($13.00) 8 3 4 (2 Players)
Hero checks, BB bets $8.59, Hero raises to $30, BB calls $21.41
Turn ($73.00) 8 3 4 Q (2 Players)
Hero bets $59, BB calls $59
River ($191.00) 8 3 4 Q 4 (2 Players)
Hero checks, BB bets $140.40
I took a bit of an unorthodox line here, but I'm mainly interested in comments on the river action after Villain bets. I feel like this might be a nice spot for a herocall because of how I presume BB constructs his betting range here. BB is a reg who is playing considerably looser than most pre (running at 27/24/10 over 500 hands). I feel that my other reads are not relevant for this specific situation, however. My own image should be solid preflop and more aggressive than most postflop. Villain has folded some hands to me in big deepstacked pots in the past.

When I check on the river I expect to lose something like 95% of the time when Villain checks back, but when he bets the river the situation suddenly becomes interesting. I feel like the range of hands that Villain will bet for value is extremely thin given my range that looks extremely polarized and very much weighted towards air. The obvious valuehands that BB will bet here are sets, but they also will put in more money some % of the time on earlier streets and 44 is severely discounted because of card removal. Other valuehands could include A5ss, A2ss, 65ss and various 8xss. There are also a few possible combos of Q4s and maybe 84s. I really don't think that Villain will be valuebetting anything less than a flush in this spot, and something like AQ KQ is discounted because of the preflop action. I'm not completely positive whether even small flushes will bet here.

Now for the bluff portion of villains range. First lets determine the hands that Villain gets here with on the river that I'm ahead of: 65s, Axdd are two groups of hands that I believe Villain will play exactly like this the majority of the time. Villain will also have some % of Kxdd combos and other flushdraws, even though me having the Jd hurts me in this spot. He might also have stuff like A5 if he thinks my line is FOS, but if that's the case the question becomes whether he will bluff with A-high on the river. Even though there are quite a few combos of possible draws BB can have here the main concern is how often he will turn A-high into a bluff, which I do think will happen here most of the time.

I feel like this is an extremely close spot that could go either way, even though calling here is of course extremely exploitable. After stoving some ranges I'm currently leaning towards a fold. Do you think my assumptions are valid? Why / why not? Are there any factors I'm neglecting to consider?

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