200NL Zoom - Folding Top2 on Turn
Posted by SweetStruggle
Posted by
SweetStruggle
posted in
Mid Stakes
200NL Zoom - Folding Top2 on Turn
BN: $513.64
SB: $549.02
BB: $275.15
UTG: $213.96
HJ: $222.06 (Hero)
CO: $670.97
SB: $549.02
BB: $275.15
UTG: $213.96
HJ: $222.06 (Hero)
CO: $670.97
SB is a 50/28/5 fish with an agg factor of 0.5 over 50 hands
But is a winning 27/21/10 reg. He flats around 13% on this spot. His raises cbets IP about 7% on turn, however having the 3rd player involved discounts that stat a lot. He generally doesn't get out of line, but balances his aggression well.
But is a winning 27/21/10 reg. He flats around 13% on this spot. His raises cbets IP about 7% on turn, however having the 3rd player involved discounts that stat a lot. He generally doesn't get out of line, but balances his aggression well.
Preflop
($3.00)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
T
J
UTG folds, Hero raises to $4, CO folds, BN calls $4, SB calls $3, BB folds
UTG folds, Hero raises to $4, CO folds, BN calls $4, SB calls $3, BB folds
Flop
($14.00)
J
T
7
(3 Players)
SB checks,
Hero bets $10,
BN calls $10,
SB calls $10
Turn
($44.00)
J
T
7
3
(3 Players)
SB checks,
Hero bets $29.83,
BN raises to $62
I hate my hand OTT because my range is so strong and he doesn't care. He has some over pairs in his range but none of those can raise, KQs can't raise (and def not this size), I think 89 flats to keep the fish in almost always and i think he has no other semi bluffs, so that would make his value raising range JJ/TT/77.
If it fair to assume that 89 never raises but sets sometimes raise?
If all those assumptions are true, does that make the worst hand we can call with TT?
If it fair to assume that 89 never raises but sets sometimes raise?
If all those assumptions are true, does that make the worst hand we can call with TT?
Loading 13 Comments...
Easy fold, I´d say, and likely TT is actually the worst hand you could call with. I dislike your sizings though, when weak loose player in the SB, I´d open to 3x, but even in general, I´d say 2x is too low. Is that your standard?
On the flop I would pot it, on the turn I would´ve bet 38.
He's playing 50% of his hands. He may even be doing this with AJ to protect.
With blockers to the sets and 4 nut outs, I'd call here. If he goes all in on a brick, probably fold.
Yeah rare is the 200 reg who bluffs into strong ranges, even though it's way more credible.
Why fold to a minraise? Why does raising 98 makes no sense but raising sets makes sense?
This isn't your every day minraise and if you don't see that dynamic i guess there isn't much value in discussing it.
98 is much more likely to slowplay to get the fish in, because there are not many cards that would kill his action. The same can't be said for sets.
I really don't see the absolute in the difference between sets and straights for villain's possible thought process. Sure that can be what is he thinking, sure that can be what he is doing, but frankly we have no idea what the f* he is doing. I personally don't think his play is good with a set or a straight, so I really have no clue what he is thinking. But if you can be so accurate in assigning this player yes for sets no for straights because of possible action killer River cards, and then using that information to fold our top2 against this sizing, sure go do it it might be the maximum exploitative play here, my problem is "might be".
I don't know if it's good I don't know if it's bad, nobody really does, but I personally believe his play is very likely sub-optimal, thus I am not folding on the turn. I agree it is not my everyday minraise, I actually never make this play I am fairly confident I don't have any type of every day minraise, and I am also not sure what dynamic description I am supposed to be missing. If you mean do I know that minraising with a fish in the pot can be very nutted, yeah I definately do, but I am not sure enough about his range to make such a hero fold on the turn already with these odds.
I am not disagreeing with you with a high level of confidence, but I do have a high level of preference for calling turn folding to a river bet unless we boat up, but yes I say that with healthy insecurity.
Nothing is really great to be played this way, so I'm inclined to believe he making some sort of mistake. I'd call because you have two pair and statistically it's only beat on this turn 10%ish of the time.
Whats the plan on blank rivers like 2d?
I don't like the line. From my perspective his range could be
1. Strong Hand
2. Medium Strength hand
3. Draw
I've seen this raise with all three types of hands. JT does pretty well against a range that isn't {sets, straights}, so I'd call.
The line is bad, because if you have a strong hand you want to keep the fish in. If you have a medium strength hand, you don't want to raise because you can get bluffed off your hand by a semibluff, especially if our opponent is aware that calling to keep the fish in is superior with strong hands. If you have a draw you may not realize your equity, if our opponent shoves.
Do you really think 50vpip fish folds KQ or FDs to a raise here by villain? I don't, so it seems to me raising with strong hands is fine. Especially if other regs (like you) are not going to expect a raise with sets+straights and develop some sort of turn 3betting range.
Fish is going to fold 90% of the here. He's still going to call hands a tag wouldn't, but the vast majority of his range is going in the muck. He's a recreational player, but not 85/4.
You can always play the leveling card in these spots and say a bad raise is a good raise because " I know he knows that I know" and maybe you are able to out level your opponents. But I can't so I choose to play solid lines.
this stat/read is probably more hurtful than helpful to you in this spot. It's skewed about 7 different ways based on strength of ranges / positional dynamic
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