$200NL Zone: Default Line in pretty common spot

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$200NL Zone: Default Line in pretty common spot

100bb deep. Anonymous ZONE games.

Hero ($200) Kc Kd in BB

BTN ($200): 3x to $6
SB Fold
Hero: 3-bet to $24
BTN: call

Flop $48: Jd 8s 6c

Hero bets: $28
Villain calls

Turn ($104): 9s

Is the default preference here to x/c reasonable Turn bets and x/f rivers?

9 Comments

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Kalupso 5 years ago

Is the default preference here to x/c reasonable Turn bets and x/f rivers?

Are the games super nitty? I would never ever fold this hand unless the river is absolutely worst like Qs, Js or T. Just shove yourself or XRAI is a nice play with the SPR and this type of hand because so many rivers are bad and it has good but not great equity.

Ryan 5 years ago

Why are you choosing this?

There’s QTs(4), 99(3), 88(1), 66(2), 89s(3), J9s(1) for 14 nutted combos ahead of Kk

As for worst hands, there are AJs(3), KJs(1), QJs(3), JTs(3) for 10 combos that we are ahead of.... maybe some more AJo, but still imagine some get folded preflop given Bb vs Bttn and the 4x 3b sizing....

Seems to me that an overbet would actually generate some Jx to fold, and if we check raise, I think a good amount of that Jx would be checked back on turn(QJ/JT), so we’d be ripping it into a pretty strong range. Imagine a lot of the floats are folded on flop with the bigger flop sizing.

But maybe I’m a bit too far removed from online games atm and no one is folding Jx to a 1.5x overbet. In which case that seems like the play to make

Kalupso 5 years ago

It turns out KK isn't behind that many hands in terms of absolute hand strength but has quite low equity overall. It has very bad playability on rivers because it will usually be a bluff catcher. However, it's strong enough to shove and do fine while also winning a lot from folding out hands that play well vs it.

The screenshot below highlights it well. The number in bottom right is equity (equity now and against same range on a blank river):

Kalupso 5 years ago

Composition of calling range against a shove with the best response (not much reason to assume a completely different range for a 200NL online reg):

zigdon7h 5 years ago

Can you explain why choosing 28$ bet otf and not 1/3pot ? Its seem to me that T,J,Q high semi cordinated we have a lot of value with overspairs and top pairs that want to bet big . is it right ?

Ott this card complete the straight and a lot of two pairs in IP range and still pio mix bet and check with KK - why pio prefer to bet agaist this strong range of IP ?

Kalupso 5 years ago

Can you explain why choosing 28$ bet otf and not 1/3pot ? Its seem to me that T,J,Q high semi cordinated we have a lot of value with overspairs and top pairs that want to bet big . is it right ?

Turns out almost all bet sizes within a certain range are viable and won't impact the win rate as long as you execute it perfectly. That range should be from around 30% pot to around 100% pot on this flop but I am not sure about exact borders.

Ott this card complete the straight and a lot of two pairs in IP range and still pio mix bet and check with KK - why pio prefer to bet agaist this strong range of IP ?

Low SPR and it wants to fold out hands with good equity. Strategy if you change turn SPR to 7 after flop play with same stacks as in HH:

rakeme 5 years ago

Does c/r on this turn look superior to 3barrel because of villian having all JTs/9Ts? On the other hand it's just ~6combos and if he is a little aware he would just check behind them.
If you ever choose to 3barrel, why wouldn't you choose this spot?

zigdon7h 5 years ago

Kalupso the KK eq on black river goes up becauae the missed draw. you exclude the option raising the turn ?

Kalupso 5 years ago

I think you missed the point. The only thing I tried to show is that few hands are ahead of KK now but it's still only got 64% equity, and I just added a river card in range explorer to show that (it's not Pio's range on 2h after bet or check). The lowish equity while still being ahead of most hands is exactly when you want to overbet shove a hand (think low PPs in the BB vs a wide preflop open at 20bb).

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