200NL Is this ever a checkback?

Posted by robbo

Posted by robbo posted in Mid Stakes

Posted 5 years, 6 months ago

200NL Is this ever a checkback?

Blinds: $1.00/$2.00 (6 Players) BN: $391.25
SB: $479.27
BB: $662.70
UTG: $234.37
MP: $200.00
CO: $394.68 (Hero)

Preflop ($3.00) Hero is CO with Q A

UTG folds, MP raises to $5.00, Hero raises to $15.00, 3 folds, MP calls $10.00

Flop ($33.00) K 4 J

MP checks, Hero bets $10.00, MP calls $10.00

Turn ($53.00) K 4 J A

MP checks, Hero checks

River ($53.00) K 4 J A 8

MP checks, Hero checks

Checking back because i dont se him looking us up enough and dont wanting to face a x/jam.
However i think we are good extremly often once he is not firing river.
He could go for the checkjam with specifically JJ at a decent frequency..

I think a 50% sizing or something still makes sense because i have some bluffs, but not to many in this positions on this board. 9Ts, maybe 99 should be bluffed here.

15 Comments

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Ryan 5 years, 6 months ago

yeah I think you can fire river here targeting him to fold things like Jx, Kx, 99/TT/77/66. So maybe half pot would be a pretty good sizing, and this would be a good combo to balance that out with. half pot prob gets even Kx to fold sometimes, as you look pretty strong here, and if very likely would get Jx and worst to fold. So since we want to bluff here with part of our range, then we can balance using this combo.

Samu Patronen 5 years, 6 months ago

Checking seems reasonable. As you said, it's tough to get value on this runout and he can definitely have slowplays.

robbo 5 years, 6 months ago

Thanks for feedback. Good points, i did break down the ranges in deeper detail.
Against a range of: KQs,JQs,JTs,QQ,JJ- I have 70% equity.
But he is gonna fold and bluffjam some of his bluffcatchers probably, + jam the traps.. Also didnt put in the hands that we are valuecutting against, i think its possibole that he can still have AJs;KJs.
So acctualy, valuebetting seems very thin if he is not stationing KQ,QQ,JQ,JT alot?..

Samu Patronen
ryanspicer

Ryan 5 years, 6 months ago

i suppose if you are up against villain turning hands into bluffs at a high freq i would def be more open to checking back haha

the games I play I just dont see it so would want to go thin and fold to a raise mostly.

gorillav 5 years, 6 months ago

I don't understand why you are afraid of a check jam? If he does decide to take that line you can just fold, he is raising into you when you have every nutted hand in your range and he has possibly 2 (AJ and JJ). I think you lose a ton of value by not betting turn when there is a fd and a ton of pair + gutshots. You are in position, unless you get check raised you
are in control of how much money goes into the pot. Do you really think KQ, QJ, KT, or JT are folding to a half pot bet on the turn?

Also do you really think villain is checking twice oop with a nutted hand?

Samu Patronen 5 years, 6 months ago

I plugged this spot into PIO to demonstrate why I/we think that the check turn and check river line is reasonable.

This is IP turn strategy when IP cbets close to 100% on the flop with 33% sizing and gets called on the turn:

PIO seems to like the idea of checking on the turn. IP doesn't really have three streets of value with AQ and by betting every single time we open ourselves up for exploitation in various ways. That said betting is not a mistake in a vacuum and PIO does bet small portion of the time.

This is IP strategy when IP bets 33% on the flop, OOP calls, turn goes check-check and OOP checks the river:

Sizes allowed are 33%, 50%, 75% and all-in. EV numbers are quite small but as you can see, AQ prefers to check. It might seem odd at first but if you really think about it, both ranges are tight and narrow to the point where AQ is somewhat of a marginal value hand.

I think we do have a valuebet in a scenario where villain calls most of his KQ/KT to a bet and doesn't bluffraise us often enough. When you say that we can just fold to a raise, the problem is that by allowing villain to bluffraise us off of our hand, we actually lose some value that we aren't losing when we check. If you never get raised with bluffs then this is not an issue, but we can't just assume that without specific info from our opponent. And what comes to villain folding KQ/QJ/KT, atleast in theory he should be folding those hands quite often (KQ calls often, QJ folds mostly and KT calls sometimes in theory).

Dan A 5 years, 6 months ago

Samu Patronen This preflop range for CO player is absurdly tight, which could be skewing your results. Seriously never 3betting JJ CO vs. HJ??

Samu Patronen 5 years, 6 months ago

Yeah JJ should probably be in there and probably some smaller pocket pairs as well at some frequency. My bad. I don't think that affects the bottom line too much though.

robbo 5 years, 6 months ago

Thanks for the sims Samu Patronen
Then i can be happy about my line, because this is vs a strong regular so i dont want to valuebet too thin vs him.
It’s ofcourse another thing vs station fish, then this may even be a tripple barrel.

Intresting that pio check back fair amount of sets OTT. It’s not something i se alot of at midstakes. Worth trying out?

belrio42 5 years, 6 months ago

How do you think Villain constructs his range? Is he 4-betting JJ preflop, or is he calling? Or is he mixing? I don't think he would have much KJ in his range, if any. Neither will he have QT. AK and KK will 4-bet preflop.

As played, I think both betting and checking turn are fine. I would bet more often than check.

Both betting and checking river are fine. As mentioned above, half pot looks good. Though, on second thoughts, if we bet and get raised, we'll be in a tricky situation.

6000 bb 5 years, 6 months ago

In the spirit of one post a day participation I see your PIO and Raise you Snowie. I crack myself up. But if anyone is wondering snowie sees your as played was correct. In this Breakdown:
Pre:
hero raises to 15 snowie says Correct at 92%Call 8% Raise
Flop:
Hero bets 10 snowie says Correct at 100% bet

Turn:
Hero chks correct at 100% check

River:
Hero chks back Snowie says Correct at 100% chk

Im new to forums and trying to get into participating, hopefully this helps.....not that I believe or follow Snowie when adjments are needed but I like to see its general idea, or try to see why. Hopefully helpfull. I guess it depends on your opponent ....but Snowie has signed off.Well Played.