200nl facing overbet river shove

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200nl facing overbet river shove

Blinds: $1.00/$2.00 (9 Players) BB: $241.20
UTG: $99.30
UTG+1: $87.42
MP: $227.56 (Hero)
MP+1: $246.20
MP+2: $341.58
CO: $200.00
BN: $156.20
SB: $297.92
Preflop ($3.00) Hero is MP with K K
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to $4.00, Hero raises to $14.00, 2 folds, CO raises to $32.00, 3 folds, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls $18.00
Flop ($71.00) Q 4 3
Hero checks, CO bets $24.00, Hero calls $24.00
Turn ($119.00) Q 4 3 7
Hero checks, CO checks
River ($119.00) Q 4 3 7 4
Hero checks, CO bets $144.00 and is all in, Hero folds
Final Pot CO wins $116.20
Rake is $2.80

Reg is very agro 19/15 with 10% 3bet. Don't have cold 4bet stat but I imagine it's much higher than average. Don't see any point in 5betting because I will fold out everything except AA.

I check river because I will have TT and JJ here a lot and I want to check some hands to stop him from having an easy vbet with all his Qx hands.

11 Comments

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red wood 9 years, 11 months ago

-tough to make an exact read because you don't have a cold 4bet stat but we can still generalize
-in my experience this is KK/AA almost always here. with your K blockers it's most likely AA
-can't see him cold 4betting AQ/AQs nor QQ (depends on table dynamic). If this is QQ, i think the small cbet flop then check back turn line is the least most likely line he would take with it
-i dont expect you to be able to fold KK, AQs, JJ in this spot which makes him shoving AK (or any other random hand/bluff) on the river a suicide bluff
-your range is almost exclusively QQ (small amounts of JJ, and small amounts of KK because of possible 5bets)
-The turn check is likely for pot control, safety move against QQ. once you check again on the river I think he feels safe enough to fire AA for value
-3 streets of value is optimistic for AA here. but two streets with an overshove seems a little more reasonable
- i fold here and take the same the line you do
-

Samu Patronen 9 years, 11 months ago

I would just put him on AA and fold. Ranges are supertight here, so villain is either shoving AA or with a bluff, and I don't see him shoving like this as a bluff that often, since your hand looks quite strong. We're getting poor odds too. Makes sense for him to shove AA like this because your hand looks like KK a lot.

superT 9 years, 11 months ago

"I check river because I will have TT and JJ here a lot and I want to check some hands to stop him from having an easy vbet with all his Qx hands."

And then you check/fold? :D

ClouD 9 years, 11 months ago

It really depends on what he's doing with AK pre and postflop. Tough to say, people with 15 pfr will most likely bluff 0% when they feel like it and 80% when they feel like it aswell. I would also fold but it will not always be the best choice.

ytyttyler 9 years, 11 months ago

This spot seems very strange because when you check/fold the river you are at the top of your range. Unless, you are going to check QQ and hope for a bluff from villain but that is still only 3 combos of hands you c/c in this spot. that being said this is a very weird spot and you might just be better off folding if the population trend is for him to only have AA. i still feel like he bluffs a solid number of hands here. you have under repped the hell out of your hand and it feels like a spot he can bail himself out with a shove

ytyttyler 9 years, 11 months ago

i think this is a b/f spot. you can beat tje AQ he decides to look you up with or JJ or 1010 if he thinks your are trying to steal when he checks back turn. and if he raises you then you can just call with your QQ and slow played AA and decide on a frequency that make sense based off hes raise sizing

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