200NL - backdoor top 2p facing turn and river aggression

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200NL - backdoor top 2p facing turn and river aggression

Blinds: $1.00/$2.00 (5 Players) SB: $200.05
BB: $584.00 (Hero)
UTG: $230.85
CO: $396.60
BN: $23.05
Preflop ($3.00) Hero is BB with J A
UTG calls $2.00, 2 folds, SB calls $1.00, Hero raises to $10.00, UTG calls $8.00, SB calls $8.00
Wasn't really sure what to make of his utg limping range. I gave him ~50% of 22-99, ~33% of AA and AKs (which I have him back-raising so not relevant to this hand where he limp-calls), and some offsuit/suited broadways and suited connectors.
Flop ($30.00) 6 8 7
SB bets $18.00, Hero calls $18.00, UTG calls $18.00
when UTG calls this board, I think we can discount some of his sets and straights here, but not entirely, obv.
Turn ($84.00) 6 8 7 J
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG bets $66.00, SB folds, Hero calls $66.00
River ($216.00) 6 8 7 J A
Hero checks, UTG bets $136.85 and is all in, Hero calls $136.85

I think given the price he's getting otf, he will peel all his 9x and some overcard+BDFD type of hands. Because of this, he gets to the river with a lot of potential bluffs (Q9s, K9s, etc.). Also, he probably feels as though I am pretty capped, and have very few combos of 2p+ here.

Even in my most pessimistic model, where I have him v-betting 66+ and bluffing at a reasonable frequency (went with 2.6:1 value:bluff ratio) we have a break-even call getting 28% pot odds.

What do you guys think about my assumptions of his limping range? Also my river call. Thanks!

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