$200 ZONE: Find Myself at Odd River Spot and Am I OverBluffing?
Posted by UCBananaboy
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UCBananaboy
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$200 ZONE: Find Myself at Odd River Spot and Am I OverBluffing?
Found myself in a peculiar spot on the River and I was hoping to get some feedback:
Here's the hand:
Hero $200 (BB) dealt Td 5c
BTN min opens to $4
Hero calls
Flop ($8): Kd Jd 5h
Hero checks
BTN bets $4
Hero decides to check/raise with backdoor flush/straight (intending to barrel any diamond/broadway Turn). Also, it's a pseudo protection bet for my 5 since I'm OOP and I'd be happy to take down the pot and deny equity to high cards. It's a board I expect him to cbet near 100% so I feel like his range is very wide with plenty of high cards that leave me guessing on the Turn/River if I simply check-call.
Hero raises to $15
BTN calls.
At this point, I think he still calls a handful of 66-TT, Jacks which are the primary hands I'm trying to fold with barreling later on favorable Turns.
Turn ($38): Qd
Hero continues his plan and barrels. At this stage I don't think my 5 has much showdown equity but I've picked up good equity with both a diamond and card higher than the J. I expect to be able to fold out a lot of the 77-pair of Jacks range with a 2/3 pot-sized bet.
Hero bets $30
Villain calls $30
River ($98) 5s
We have a pot-sized bet left and now I've back-doored into a very disguised trips.
What is our preferred line in this spot and why? I'll include the result of the hand below.
I'd also like some thoughts on my general play with the hand. I tried to outline my logic and line of thinking above to try and get the best feedback. On one hand including Td5x (backdoor straight/flush draw) in my Flop check-raise range seems nice because I block a few additional hand combos that can continue (K5s, J5s, 55) but I wonder if using something like bottom-pair BDFD/BDSD makes my Flop check-raise frequencies far too high?
Spoilers
Hero opts to check and BTN jams. Hero calls.
BTN shows KK for Kings full of Fives.
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okay well first off your defend is far too wide, you can't just defend ATC because you are facing a min raise, you still need to call with hands that are winning some EV. as well, i'm sure the rake in these games is pretty high so that should de-incentivise you further to defend such weak hands pre-flop. Snowie defends T7o to the min raise at $1/2, so that would also be my cut-off hand.
but anyways, as played I don't hate the check raise, the problem is you will have a ton of weaker hands that aren't great check calls either, and your value region isn't very wide here. the check raise is whatever, though.
on the turn I like the bet.
on the river I don't hate blocking tbh. you can still get some value from KQ/KJ/KT/AK/AA type hands that are extremely unlikely to fold vs 1/4p. I do not really like shoving unless the guy is a fish or a station. or both.
once you check and get jammed on you have a pure bluff catcher, you are not beating any of his value region. sure, it seems like a good hand to call with but he needs to be turning a hand such as AK in to a bluff for you to be able to call profitably. and in my experience players just check these hands back as they also have a bunch of EV to x down, and then jam flush+.
as played, I would x fold on the river. we don't need to defend 1-A here, as we developed a polarized raising range on the flop and bet twice in to a player who is un-capped and has to call very tight on the turn especially. so his range is very tight and not conducive to having very many bluffs, bar the odd AQ/AT with the Ad. but they can also check down for some EV as well, and may not always bet on the flop (especially AQ.) i'm sure if you put this hand in to PIO it would MAYBE call with this combination on the river, but PIO is able to find bluffs where us humans cannot, and if they cannot find them they FORCE them. I think this call is definitely not winning and not even 0EV imo.
just x fold, he will x back a ton of hands you beat, so when he bets he has you crushed and you can comfortably fold.
and yeah you are probably over-bluffing on early streets with your check raising frequencies on these kind of boards unless you are using an RNG.
Preflop is certainly a bit loose, I would guess that it doesn't make money, especially with rake considerations.
Flop and turn plays are definitely fine, both of your cards are relevant in blocking continues which is very important of course.
River is just a check/fold againts most opponents, because it's so hard for villain to find enough bluffs considering that he can easily have all the possible nutted combos and not much air. Solver would turn so many pairs into a bluff here that most people just seem to play passively on the river that calling bluffcatchers becomes very hard to do profitably.
It's all about the frequensies, but solver would certainly use these types of hands as raises fairly often. I would also question whether us overbluffing or not is a particularly relevant concern.
I think it is more because he is unsure what his check raising frequency should be on this flop, given the fact that IP has a very large EV/Equity advantage as well as a large nutted combination advantage. I have studied similar boards and the check raising frequencies bb vs btn, what I found was that we don't really like to check raise with a small sizing and prefer to use a larger, more polarized one. around a pot sized raise. which makes sense as we do not want to start playing large pots OOP when IP has a very big EV/Equity/Nut advantage, as well as having the power of position.
iirc our range would roughly consist of very low frequencies of KQ, probably with a diamond, and then KJ, K4 and 44 with some hands such as AT/QT with a diamond as well as some combo draws and some FD's as well as some bottom pair with backdoors. so I think our combination could fit in to this range, but again, it should not be in our pre-flop range, however.
so no, I do not think you are over-bluffing with this check raise. however, I do think you are over-bluffing if you start to check raise with T9xd, QxTd, ATxd, Ad5x etc at 100% frequencies. which is why you need to be using an RNG, or have a very structured game plan whereby you know which combinations are check raising/calling/folding before you join the tables.
I think folding preflop
I think I would prefer cr a hand like Ad5x because it allows us to turn better equity and blockers, plus an overcard to the board. I do like having the 5 in hand to block sets.
I think villain is going to have a lot of straights and flushes on the river, and I’m okay with the turn barrel.
When we get to the river, I think shoving is too thin, so then we can consider developing a mix river sizing. Against a weaker player or if I’m actually mixing here w some but combos, I can see bet folding like 1/3 of the pot.
After we check and get shoved on, it seems tough. I think some KJ and sets fast play flop, but two pair prob doesn’t shove river. So I guess I’d just fold and feel gross about it.
as mentioned above already your defend is way too wide even against a minraise.
flop checkraise is fine, once we get to the turn i think barreling seems the best option since u don’t really have showdown value anymore.
river is just a checkfold. valuebetting is kinda too thin only with specific reads that he’s a big calling station.
also once u check he doesn’t really have many bluffs, so just a fold without further reads.
I think Ad 5x could consider calling. In addition to blocking value, it unblocks QT/JT
Td5x blocks a hand like QxTd or JxTd that btn could bluff with.
Finding the right frequencies is tough when you call so wide PF. Too many junk combos to deal with.
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