$200 Zone: BVB, Is this a bad overbet?
Posted by UCBananaboy
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UCBananaboy
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Mid Stakes
$200 Zone: BVB, Is this a bad overbet?
Trying to incorporate some overbetting into my play, a move I'm admittedly very under-studied on, and I would like to hear feedback on specifically this overbet and then maybe some opinions on potentially different River cards that would make this a more preferable spot to overbet.
HH:
Eff 100bb
Hero (SB) opens 3x Jd 8d
BB defends
Flop: As Ks 4h
Hero cbets 30%
BB calls
Turn: Jh
Check Check
River: 4c
Hero bets 2.8x pot
Villain calls and shows Kh 5d
Now, taking the actual results out of this (villain made a great call, kudos). His exact hand make me feel justified that my overbet was sound, however, I don't want to allow his specific holding to cloud my judgment.
My rationale for the overbet: Both flush draws missed the Turn. I'd expect the villain to want some protection from this board on the Turn with anything like 2p, decent ace, straight, etc, so his Turn check really caps his range to something medium-strength. By the River, I obviously have no showdown value. Also, I unblock both flush draws.
Thoughts?
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I don't think this is true, you beat pocketpairs below J, split with QJ/JT and beat flushdraws.
I think you might have better bluffs with lower pp like 22, 33, 55 that likely dont have sdv and also block most frequent Ax/Kx that calls flop and checks back turn and calls river probe. And even pairs I probably dont bluff. Jx needs to try and go to showdown imo...you’re going to have a lot of air on river as you’re presumably cbetting range on the flop.
Not bad overbet in general, however 2 things to consider:
1)you have showdown value and likely checking is higher EV play
2)villain have more 4x than you (preflop reasons) so we aren't want to be huge betting a ton
I don't think this is a good spot for an over bet. You capped yourself on the turn, and the river is a brick. When you overbet the river you don't rep much. Villain likely put you on a missed flush draw and hero called you. I think sizing up flop when you have a massive nut and range advantage is better and checking down once you turn showdown value. Overbetting turn on a brick is a far better strategy and one that would have won you the hand in this spot. Hope this helped :)
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