20 BI downswing

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20 BI downswing

Hey guys im in the midst of a 20BI downswing at 10NL. I am kind of starting to feel like 10NL just is not poker. The games are good but the varience is kind of out of control. People cold calling 3bets with crazy hands in the blinds. So many people play like 50/30, or 70/20 and alot of aggro monkeys. 

So many flops with 3+ peeps it is hard to find cbets when I just cannot put people on accurate hand ranges since they are playing 70% of hands my thoughts are "well I guess since I whiffed on this flop one of these two people must have hit something." I am thinking I might want to 2 barrel more but I mean you'd be surprised of how many people will show up with second pair, call with ace high. Since only betting when you flop something is obv very exploitable.

So I mean yes alot of this swing has to due with some bad variance and many bad calls. Like running QQ into KK when someone is 3bet stat is 20. And bad calls like flopping sets and not believing their flush got there on the river. Hitting TPTK and think they are playing a flush draw aggressively, when they actually have a set. 

I dunno I just feel like my play is very exploitable and do not balance my ranges very well while I level myself into the ground against opponents. I pay off too many people do to their high aggression. I probably have a semi tilt problem but i try and work on it. This is just rough since I guess since I lose to idiots I guess I'm a moron. 

15 Comments

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wolfobert 10 years, 5 months ago

maybe post some stats and trouble hands..20 buyins is generally a normal swing, if you have beaten the game just play on and try too improve, dont question everything

arthur 3 10 years, 5 months ago

i dont know your banroll size but maybe if you drop down limits will help for now and see some videos of other people playing , if you have essential subscription just see every video you can and take a look at bet sizing and especially when to bet and when to fold , 10 nl has a big player pool so try to adapt carefully to each type of player especially if it´s unknown . Work outside the tables, analyze your hands . Flopzilla it´s a good tool to analyze villain ranges and work on your game . 


angelofm 10 years, 5 months ago

Remember that when u run bad u will doubt about urself and ur game, loads of those calls might be just fine but because you are running bad you think they are wrong, flopzilla like arthur recommended it's a good tool to analyse ranges, that will give u a start to get ur confidence up.

I lost 1.2k last month playing 50nl HU when I should be break even, I am a winning player but still EV wise I was breaking even, that's because I did loads of bad plays, guess what I am trying to say is that unless you are very good in terms of mental control you will be playing worst than normal because you are not confident, it's important to get ur confidence back and keep ur head up, only way to beat the downswing is to keep playing and study more and more but if u think u r "cracking" then take a break study ur game, watch some videos and come back more confident and stronger than ever.

Gl (flex)

zenpoker 10 years, 5 months ago

thanks for the replies guys.

I have marked some hands and may post some. Alot of hands a choose not to post because I think its just so obvious what I did wrong (or how I should have played it) once I see their hand. Maybe I'll start posting more hands that I lay down because I feel like that is the most important part in poker is losing the least in spots where you have decent hands. 

I am starting to realize that I probably have a tilt problem. It's just tough not getting frustrated when you lose. I have read the mental game of poker by jared (I am spacing on his last name) so i mean I understand of all sorts of different tilt people can go on, just in practice it's so hard to keep your cool (for me at least). 

Today went better I just kept telling myself "it's alright they want you to get angry about what happened so dont let them. there are more hands to play and just acknowledge what happened and move on." Yes really simple but once those cards are in the air everything can change. haha 

Thanks for putting up with my whining guys, I really appreciate the respectful comments on this thread. Flopzilla is tough for me since I am on a mac, and I hate messing around with parallel. The app on poker tracker is similar to flopzilla right?

angelofm 10 years, 5 months ago

Good post, it looks like you are with the right mentality to beat the downswing and start to improve your game, bare in mind that everyone tilts, people just tilt in different levels, it's very important to be aware when you start warming up, for instance I start tilting when a reg sucks out on me and then I think (wtf why can I not suck out as well, is just the others?), I know at that point I got to insta quit, no matter if I am up or down a lot, just gotta quit.

I feel like everyone has a point where the feeling of injustice takes over the mouse, what we want is to be aware we reached that point and just quit before spewing unnecessary money.

What you can do is have a diary or even a piece of paper, call it mental weakness or something and start writing a short sentence of how u feel every 30 mins or so.

For example:
19:00 - Starting session feeling gr8, feel focused
19:30 - Did 2 bluffs that didn't work out, still playing good
20:00 - Shit i'm down 4 buy ins I have to get it back, feels like they always have it
20:30 - How can these ppl being so lucky, down 12 buy ins, I am gonna get it back

I mean this clearly shows what u r thinking before you go on tilt, the exercise is to spot the negative feelings so you start slowly be aware of your feelings and work on them before they take over.

Gl man hope you crush those donkeys (y)

Simon Ash 10 years, 5 months ago

GL and hope it goes better. If low stakes NL is the same as low stakes PLO and LHE I wouldn't be too concerned about being exploitable; v few players would notice.

zenpoker 10 years, 5 months ago

Yes injustice tilt is probably exactly whats going on. When I am on these downswings I am thinking there is no way you get there every time, which makes me make terrible calls since alot of the time the boards are really draw heavy. After that it really just comes down to people shoving flush draws and flop and getting there, and then when you flop a opened ended straight flush draw it seems as if u never hit. And that leads to loss of confidence to like cbet and bluff since it is always in the back of you're mind that villain probably has it again. 

I thought it was so crazy when I was watching phil galfond play 10K PLO and he was just not phased by what was going on. Like oh whatever another 10K. I mean I get it, he has alot of money and does this for a living and has come across a lot of these similar spots before, so its kind of like clockwork for him. It's just so sick. 

I have tried those journals before and I may have to start it up again. If you would see my poker tracker you would definitely see that when I am winning I keep on winning but once I start losing my profits free-fall. It's literally a roller coaster ride, and if I haven't been running as good as I have this football season (kinda degen I know) I would have gone broke multiple times. The most tilting part about this is that I was so close to jumping to NL25 and leaving NL10 behind me right before this downswing. Like a buyin or 2 away.  I was looking forward to it, but in these last couple days it seems like my game has improved a lot, so hopefully this will be the purge that finally gets me to NL25. However I can say that I am glad this happened, since it is better to work out mental game leaks (and about other leaks in my game) at 10NL and lose 20BI's than the latter and really mess up my 25NL shot. 

Again, thanks for the comments and GL at the tables


wolfobert 10 years, 5 months ago

i like your attidude :) just stay calm and practice proper bankrollmanagement, i know it sounds crazy to most of you people but i will start nl25 again when i have 2,000$ in my bankroll swings can be heavy especially in zoom.. gl!

zenpoker 10 years, 5 months ago

wow 2k for 25nl does sound pretty crazy. I mean I was just looking to get to a modest $300 but maybe I am looking at it wrong? Besides your RoR being real low with an 80BI roll, are there any other reasons? Are you playing 16tables? 

Eddie Spencer-Small 10 years, 5 months ago

$300 is way too shallow to play at 25NL frequently. If you want to take a shot at it and move back down if you lose a buy in or two that may be enough, but if you want to make 25NL your main game, you've got to have at the very minimum $500 (a 20BI for any level really), but even then that's only if poker is a leisurely activity. I would suggest at least 50BI if you're going to get serious about the game. 80BI is standard to play cash games for a living, although some pros may advocate more. 


If you think thats crazy, then don't play MTTs. Tournament pros won't play a tournament unless they've got at least 100 or 200 buy ins, and sometimes even more!

zenpoker 10 years, 5 months ago

yeah you're right it might be a little risky moving up to 25NL on 12 BI. I mean I was planning on moving back down if it didn't work and since I do not want to break my roll I think I'm going to wait til I hit $500. 

Yeah I guess I would say it's a leisurely activity for me since I don't get in THAT much volume. Poker started as a way to make a quick buck, and it did not turn out to be as easy as I thought. I grew fond of the strategy, and I am decent with the mathematical side of things. I would like to think I have some sort of edge, however mentally I am sort of a fish, and having a proficient bankroll would probably help wonders with that. 

Thanks for the suggestions, I enjoy hearing everyone's thoughts on BRM.

arthur 3 10 years, 5 months ago

if you are disciplined and know when to drop down , 30 buy ins for 10 nl is enough if you drop down 30 go back to 5 nl . But you need a stop loss for that like 2 or 3 buy ins for session to change limits and maybe 5 or 6 to end day. I think the secret for good bankroll management is  to move down when it´s necessary no matter how confident you are in your game. Don´t focus on the limits you want to play , focus on playing good in whatever limits you are and please never chase losses .




wolfobert 10 years, 5 months ago

yeah thats my problem i cant take those shots its so frustating to move down..i mean you can bust your whole month winnings in just a view days at the new limit

ohgodwhy 10 years, 5 months ago

I'm having a similar problem right now. I've always been playing rather part-time/recreationally but been a solid winner on NL200 and even a small sample NL400 some years ago. Then I switched to Starcraft 2 for 2 years and took a poker break but got back to my hobby maybe half a year ago.

I somewhat had to relearn the game but solidly beat NL25 over a small sample though, probably 30k hands. Then suddenly my game fell off. I've also been looking to learn PLO in parallel and directly went on a -20 stack downsing on PL25 which some time later even touched the -30 mark. I'm sure I still do a lot of mistakes in both games, especially in PLO, but compared to NL/PL50, 100, 200 regs from review videos on this site, I can't imagine not beating these stakes with all it's weak regs and fishes.

However for two weeks or so it takes 100 hands for me to lose two buyins and haven't had a winning or break-even session for the last 10 of them. And it's less suckouts where you still have the proof for having made the right play but a lot of "non-SD setups" which I'd call them.

So it feels like everybody can see my cards. If I flop a marginal piece, I'll get raised and barreled on worse and worse runouts for my hand, I won't get payoffs for my nut hands and players suddendly tend to make big folds when they're right, all of my bluff attempts will be snaplookedup by weird slowplays or very unexpected and unlikely nut hands, it's just really frustrating and tough to keep your game up.

And I've always been very resistent to tilting and such. Even now I don't feel particularly off and just drop down to NL2 or PL2 after losing too much. But even there it goes on like that and I'm slowly starting to question my game more and more.

So I can't really give you a prime advice besides trying to move on as unaffected as possible and was just crying myself but James Hudson's video about Tilt covers this topic pretty well. :)

dianasvensk 10 years, 5 months ago

Hi! 

Great post here are my tips: 

1) I was stuck at 10 nl for a long time and for me switching from Zoom to regular tables really helped. There are so many odd birds in the pool and when I could better see what each one was up to I started to doing a lot better in terms of results.

2) When I play online I spend 1:1 playing/studying. I normally play 2hs, review hands 2hs, play, review etc. It helps me to keep focused and avoid tilt to think and model the hands I played. 

3)You can use the Kelly criterion or Kelly fractions as a guideline for bankroll management, its mentioned in the Intellegent Poker Player (it has a great chapter on bankroll managment that I also really recommend u to read). 

Gl gl! 





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