2 Black KK on J♠️6♣️5♣️
Posted by I_Fold_Jacks
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I_Fold_Jacks
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High Stakes
2 Black KK on J♠️6♣️5♣️
My effective stack in this hand was about $950 in $5/$10 in a ring game in the Bellagio. I raised in EP with K♠️K♣️, and I picked up 2 callers in MP and LP. OTF of J♠️6♣️5♣️, I c-bet for $60 into $105. MP guy called. LP guy raised to $190. What is our best option here? LP guy is a fish who plays a wide range of hands and he covered me. How relevant are our flush blockers in affecting the decision for our hand? I spoke to a friend about such spots before where my hand would be AA instead but with a similar board texture and with the flush blocker, and my friend who is a successful high stakes player said that since we blocked the NFD, it’s less likely our opponent would be bluffing in such spots so he said we should fold in such spots. But my hand now is KK instead of AA, so is his advice still relevant? Is it always a str8forward decision in this hand, or are there other variables we needa consider? Are we getting exploited if we always over-fold in such spots?
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Questions to ask.
Is villain capable of bluffraising ?
Will villain raise say AJ for value, can villain play QQ like this ?
These are the right questions to be asking.
Generally speaking, what percentage of non-online/ strategic players are capable of bluff-raising in this situation? The whole conversation of flush-blockers is only relevant if Villain is choosing his bluffs strategically... Which he may or may not.
Basically, in your experience, what percentage of middle-age men are capable of bluffing in this situation in a typical live game... And, without any additional information, what would you do in this situation?
I'm wrestling with it, because I think there's a decent chance a fish could raise with AJ, or even KJ, because he's overestimating his hand. However, generally speaking, most people tend to call when they have a pair, and only raise when they have at least 2 pairs. I'd probably take the low variance route and fold, but I'm not sure if that's the most ev+ in live Vegas games.
What are the chances villain is calling a raise with suited connectors would be my first question. After that is this person capable bluffing? I mean this is a pretty standard spot. I jam it in and if they have a set I say nice hand. If they have a flush draw their odds ( even implied) do not dictate a call there. Even if they are holding top pair ( j10cc) with the flush draw you are head (55%) You are also ahead if they they have the nut flush draw (57%)
You are also ahead even if they have AJcc or the nut flush draw with top pr, top kicker and an overcard. Board could pair even if he has 56.
I jam. Come get me.
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