2-5 Aria game overbet call/fold?

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2-5 Aria game overbet call/fold?

Bought in 1k at a 2-5 Aria game. (8 handed)

The first hand I sit down I get 8d8s UTG+1 on a UTG straddle.

Hero: Raises 35.
LJ (Effective stack 800): Flats.
SB: (Effective stack 1500): Raises 95. (First impression seems fishy by his bet sizing and gut feeling looks like the type that could be aggro.)
Hero flats
LJ flats

Flop: 245ddd
Checks around.

Turn 2c.
Sb leads 95.
I flat.
LJ folds.

River is Js.
Sb bets 700.

I folded.

Was wondering if it was a good fold and what could he possibly have and any other suggestions playing the hand?

(Later was told by a player that he check raised him on an aa3 board with K9 thus my assessment of him being bluff capable was right).

4 Comments

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James Hudson 7 years ago

He's betting 700$ into 480$ ish on the river right? I think that you can pretty safely fold 88 here readless. I'm guessing that this won't be the top of your range in this spot and you don't have a read to support making a hero call here so I would just let it go.

Eldora 7 years ago

100% agree. With this overbet you don't need to bluffcatch often and imo even though he might be aggressive I would still guess that his range is rather value-heavy here. With strong fds which generally might make most sense as bluffs he could bet the flop some of the time. And he has all the better overpairs. So probably start consider calling here with AJd and QQ+ ?

seanish 6 years, 8 months ago

math.
flop=5+10+95+95+95=300. river=300+95+95=490
MDF=1-(700/(490+700))=0.412
calling 3bet range=88-JJ, AJdd+, AQ+=40 combos (4bet all QQ+ AKo and some bluffs such as A5 A4s)
MDF=16.4 combos=AJdd AQdd, 99+.
U will not bluff with AdQx here as well,so if you will raise all AJdd AQdd and AdQo u need call two 88 combos as well.
As no info so the decision is made by math and optimal play. if u got the dynamics of the room, u can over fold if they always heavy value over bet /defend more they bluff too much. I think fold 88 is OK, 88 is one of my bottom pocket pairs.

well if they are not too good, over-fold to a river over bet is fine, even only defend JJ AQdd AJdd here.

Krzysztof Slaski 6 years, 8 months ago

Hi robetoblanco
This spot is pretty interesting and I think the guys above are discounting this hand a little too soon. I think it's important to consider that if we assume our opponent only uses Ad as his bluffs, and we decide our best calling hands are Adx blocking his nuts, he will always get his bluffs through (since we will have no calling hands when he bluffs). So that being said I don't think it's out of line to consider calling this one(and I would guess the solvers will have this as a call with small frequency). Since we are expecting a value range of Axdd, JJ, and maybe the QdQ+ region we would then chose our QQd and Jx hands as calls. The Jx we should have none of other than maybe if we call AJo vs the smaller sizing preflop. So then we have our pairs, the pair+diamond being the clearly better calls, and I would expect the lower ones to perform better than a hand like TTd even if he 3bets ATs at a higher frequency than say A8s. The smaller pairs will unblock AdTx, which we can expect to see with some frequency, while we can pretty safely expect never to see A8o(and because of our pot odds blocking equal # of bluff and vbet combos would make the hand a good blocker).

That being said obviously if our opponent is good enough to vary his bluffing strategy well enough this point becomes kind of moot, however i would not expect that from the average player in the Aria 2-5 game. Also as mentioned above he could very easily be underbluffing (and he does need quite a few bluffs with his bet size choice)

Cheers.

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