170bb deep bvb spot
Posted by Cosme Fulanito
Posted by
Cosme Fulanito
posted in
Mid Stakes
170bb deep bvb spot
Villian folds too much on BB vs SB steal so std open.
I think flop could be a 3bet but I wanted to keep some random bluffs on his range.
On the turn, is it ok to shove? I can't find a better hand to turn into a bluff.
I block 22, T9, then I would suppose he 3bets pre 99, TT. Also I dont think many 9x will raise flop as he can call and have SDV. As I played I can have all 9x, and also the shove will make some Tx to fold. He can call me with some big draws I guess.
Is this too spewy?
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He defends 30% vs SB open btw
Spew, he will almost fold no hands, that he vb turn with.
Call seems standard, you beat plenty of draws/floats.
ok, so why spew if he values 3 combos of sets and 4 combos of 9T and the rest are draws? so you are saying he never bets with draws here?. And isn't the river too scary for me? that I will be folding a ton?
is it feasible that he bets the turn with 22,99,T9s,KsQs,KsJs,QsJs,8s7s,8s6s,7s6s,T9o?, some times he will have 99 or TT, but some times he 3bets. so I count only 1 of them. He needs to defend 23% of the time vs my shove and my equity vs that range is 34.09%.
If I run the math to know how many folds I need I came up with:
EV push = folds* pot + calls(finalpot*equity - risk)
EV push = x(111.29) + 1-x(688.68 *34.09 - 265.77)
EV push = 111.29x -31 +31x
31= 142.29x
x= 22
I need 22% folds, am I confused?
If he 3bets 99 and TT as he should IP deep, equity goes up to 37.19 and I need 8% folds only
But maybe call turn fold riverEV > push river EV?
really bad turn shove, just call. mysterio is a bad aggro but still a thinking player. he would underbluff this turn card IME b/c he doesn't bother to bluff enough on turn/river cards that weaken his perceived range
so i have no problem with just over-folding turn based on that. although you have really sick blockers with ur exact hand
Mysterio is aggro? He's a huge nit.
He either has T9 or a draw, so you're either shoving him off some equity, or getting it in with 0% equity.
Nick/Chael, we are discussing a generic villian that folds too much on BB vs SB steal so std open. No reason to discuss mysterios tendencies - bad manners AND its pointless since everyone would have a lot of different views + much more interesting what to do in the general spot.
Yeah I understand that and I think it's totally valid. But I personally don't mind if they do adjust because they will often over-adjust and it becomes easy to exploit again.
Thanks everyone for his opinions, so what I am reading is that this is a big mistake vs this type of player. So what about vs a solid good reg, is this viable?
On the turn, is it ok to shove? I can't find a better hand to turn into a bluff.
I
block 22, T9, then I would suppose he 3bets pre 99, TT. Also I dont
think many 9x will raise flop as he can call and have SDV. As I played I
can have all 9x, and also the shove will make some Tx to fold. He can
call me with some big draws I guess.
Barring a specific read I wouldn't expect too many villains to be raising 10x on this texture so turning your hand into a bluff on the turn isn't really targeting many (if any) hands. Also, when picking hands to bluff with on the turn I think we should be more concerned with equity vs their calling range rather than blockers and think more about blockers on rivers.
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