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16NLz - XC or BF this river?

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

16NLz - XC or BF this river?

Blinds: $0.08/$0.16 (6 Players) BN: $21.92
SB: $17.85
BB: $35.62
UTG: $25.26
MP: $17.15
CO: $16.00 (Hero)
Preflop ($0.24) Hero is CO with K A
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.48, BN calls $0.48, 2 folds
Flop ($1.20) 7 2 A
Hero bets $0.83, BN calls $0.83
Turn ($2.86) 7 2 A 6
Hero bets $1.92, BN calls $1.92
River ($6.70) 7 2 A 6 3
Hero checks, BN bets $4.22

Unknown player.

I don't think the population tends to call worse aces vs 3barrels in this spot.
So I want to give him the opportunity to bluff or vbet worse combos.

Is the XC or the BF kinda equals in terms of EV?

4 Comments

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james 7 years, 1 month ago

I think that you'll do better by just betting yourself here. I'm surprised that your read on players at these stakes is that they'll fold weaker aces here. Take a look through your database for some similar spots and see what percentage of the time you're getting folds 3 barreling ace high boards as well as what types of hands are calling you.

As far as giving your opponent the chance to bluff on the river, what types of hands do you think he/she will be blufifng in this spot?

Mancuso 7 years, 1 month ago

That's make sense. He won't get into the river with busted draws or speculative hands that may turn into a bluff. Most of the range on the river are worse combos of aces. The problem of giving him the opportunity to check back this river is bad 'cos most of the combos he checks back, he might call on the river, as well.

Jeff_ 7 years, 1 month ago

I like more x/f than x/c. Betting seems better overall, but I'm not 100% convinced that we have a lot of value. If villian is fish, easy valuebet since he can have much more offsuit pair of Aces. Vs reg I imagine it is a spot where villian have many flushes with Aspade, few easy folds and a lot of Ax(possible bluffcathers).

Another thing about x/f that AQ,AJ are good 3bet hands for villian, so they are discounted I doubt he will ever bet AQ for value when we check river, and only bluffs I can see it is 55s,44, and 98cc,dd,65

tpwlswldud 7 years, 1 month ago

i think he would'nt make that size with AQ.AJ at this kind of situation.besides there are so many 2pair combos in villian's range and it is not easy2 find bluff hand as long as he has'nt floated with super air hand something like 89dd.9Tdd etc.in conclusion i like to fold here if i checked on the river

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