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16NLz - Facing 3 barrel vs missed CB

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

16NLz - Facing 3 barrel vs missed CB

Blinds: $0.08/$0.16 (6 Players) BN: $15.84
SB: $16.00 (Hero)
BB: $29.26
UTG: $16.28
MP: $14.66
CO: $28.56
Preflop ($0.24) Hero is SB with A J
4 folds, Hero raises to $0.48, BB calls $0.32
Flop ($0.96) 8 6 T
Hero checks, BB bets $0.48, Hero calls $0.48
Turn ($1.92) 8 6 T A
Hero checks, BB bets $1.44, Hero calls $1.44
River ($4.80) 8 6 T A 5
Hero checks, BB bets $2.72, Hero folds

Vs Unknown player, probably a reg 'cos he was multi-tabling.

Did we miss a 1/3 CB opportunity OTF?
As played are we calling this river?

I ran this spot in gto plus solver and AJo would be a 3 barrel shoving the river. The problem was that the solver was incuding some calls on the river that the population might fold a lot, such as all top pairs and some second pairs. I think the population tends to fold a lot on the river vs a 3 barrel in these spots, then I node locked some combos to fold and then the AJo went from shoving the river to XCalling it about 50% freq.

At the same time I assume the population tends to fold a lot on the river, I think the field is not being aggro enough on the river as well, that's why I make the fold.

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