16NL FR - KK in 3b pot on paired board, I get lost on the turn... HELP!
Posted by jamo
Posted by
jamo
posted in
Low Stakes
16NL FR - KK in 3b pot on paired board, I get lost on the turn... HELP!
UTG: $16.48
UTG1: $16.75
LJ: $5.36
HJ: $10.32
CO: $16.24
BN: $16
SB: $17.23 (Hero)
BB: $16
UTG1: $16.75
LJ: $5.36
HJ: $10.32
CO: $16.24
BN: $16
SB: $17.23 (Hero)
BB: $16
Villain is running 12/10 over 510 hands. His 3b stat is 4% and his showndown range is QQ+,AK.
Preflop
($0.24)
(8 Players)
Hero was dealt
K
K
UTG raises to $0.32, UTG1 folds, LJ folds, HJ folds, CO folds, BN folds, Hero raises to $1.12, BB calls $0.96, UTG folds
UTG raises to $0.32, UTG1 folds, LJ folds, HJ folds, CO folds, BN folds, Hero raises to $1.12, BB calls $0.96, UTG folds
This is the first time he's cold called a 3b. I'm not sure if we can rule out the top of this player's range, or whether he would just flat QQ+,AK here? I doubt he has AQ. So my thoughts are he has 22+ (he feels he's getting good odds, especially if the original raiser calls) and AK.
Flop
($2.64)
Q
T
6
(2 Players)
Hero bets $1.63,
BB calls $1.63
I make a standard value bet on the flop (how's my sizing?). On this flop I'm not sure there's much that I get value from... I guess maybe JJ, but that's pretty much it.
Turn
($5.90)
Q
T
6
Q
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
BB bets $3.16,
Hero calls $3.16
Given there aren't many Qx hands in his range is check/calling okay here?
River
($12.22)
Q
T
6
Q
9
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
BB bets $10.09, and is all in,
Hero folds
On the river I think he either has a boat or complete air, with the boats making up the vast majority of his range. I don't think he jams AA here. I guess he could have AsKs as well. So now I'm not sure whether folding is good on the river or not.
Final Pot
BB
wins $11.59
I think the check/call on the turn is fine as he could be trying to value bet his lower pairs, but when he jams the river I feel like I'm beat a lot of the time. His river AF is 0.4 and AFq is 22% so I think this is very unlikely a bluff and is a shove for value.
Loading 6 Comments...
You can x/f the turn.
He probably has all of the QQ, AQs, KQs, QJs which is 6 combos + 3 combos of TT.
but if you discount those hands pre i would be pretty interested in your thoughts what villain might play as a bluff here?
Therefore he is really tight you might eventually be right that he wont have QJs, but im not too sure in the 1st place about KQs and esp. AQs tbh....But if we assume that he folds all of these hands preflop, his proceeding range becomes much stronger than average, so he might have basically only TT+ and AK (which we obv block heavily) And i dont expect anything in a TT+range to take a bluffing line here, cauze everything in there is nuts or has decent SDV OTT
(Not to mention that really any possible draw beside AJ/AK got there OTR)
beside your own thought that nits like that dont tend to bluff in general. And vs his valuerange we´re already absolutely crushed on this turn
I think we need to CB the turn.
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