16 NL trip barrel bluff - standard or spew?
Posted by Scrubx
Posted by
Scrubx
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Low Stakes
16 NL trip barrel bluff - standard or spew?
SB: Tosiko_San: $25.12
BB: Baboscrubx: $22.03 (Hero)
UTG: Andrew227: $16.00
MP: hallofax: $16.24
CO: buranela: $17.34
The river bet needs to work like 38% of the time, he rarely has a 7, he rarely has trips here since I imagine they will raise the flop at a very high clip, he can show up with some slow plays like 55 88 or 99 - his 55 combinations should be a bit discounted since not every player defends that hand pre and if he does he sometimes raises otf or ott.
He will most likely show up with all combinations of 99 maybe we can slightly discounted it since it sometimes raises ott. I wont give him either 87 or 89 since its discounted from the start since not every player defends those things at these stakes even being IP, and he would raise somewhere most likely. So imo he will have around 5,5 combinations of slow played boats here.
He could still have some flush combinations, though those often raise ott or even sometimes otf. Plus we obviously block the nut flush. Lets give him like JTss and QJss for flushes.
This leaves us with 7,5 combinations that wont fold and beat us otr. I'm not sure if we should include some 77 combinations e.g. the once with a spade maybe? But even then we would need to discount them since they wont always call the turn. But yeah lets keep in mind that he might have a bit more than 7,5 combinations of stuff that wont fold the river.
Now to the part of range we are targeting here mainly: TT JJ QQ - its kinda hard to actually say how many combinations of those hands he will have since they might raise on an earlier street aswell and QQ will 4b at some freq. Lets say he will get to this river with 2 combinations of QQ 4 combinations of JJ and 4 combinations of TT (is that a realistic assumption?). So we are at 10 combinations here so assuming he pretty much always folds those otr we should have an easy bluff spot?
He might get to the river with AxKs as mentioned earlier, though obviously those combinations 4b pre at some freq at least, though if they just call pre im pretty pretty sure they will float the flop and the turn.
So with my assumptions of the tedencies/ ranges of the player pool we have a hugely profitabel third barrel here otr. Would you agree? Keep in mind the bluff needs to work 38-39% of the time. So villain can call 60% of the time and we will still be gucci. With my assumptions villain will call about ~40% of the time.
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1/2 psb turn no need for more
Results dont matter leave them out in future, you will learn allot more. And as NLHE players we should strive to not be results oriented. Also results will skew the responses you get in the forums
:D lol
Not bad surely would love read on river, but we will need bluffs, and blocking the NFD is good...
Two thing that would concern me on river are:
Board being paired, and
Board running out to a 4 str/3 flush
As mentioned I pretty much doubt he has any straights in his range pretty much - some drooler might have 7s7x some of the time but meh not really that relevant. And yeah I didnt mean to be results oriented I just copyed the whole hand history from HEM and pasted it here :P. But I agree not posting his holding should be better yeah.
And the 4 straight should be a good card for me - not in terms of range but in terms of getting the bluff through aight?
The entire runout is better for villain. Calling this standard would lose you a lot
What do you have to support your argument, can you prove that the bluff won't work enough of the time? Why? What range do you give villain? On which points do you disagree? I dont want to sound rude but your argument is pretty thin, I'm all for constructive criticism but it should be well founded.
And the run out is not that much better for villain. I will have 99 here I will have 87 here I will have 89 here. I will have TONS of flushes here, villain seems to be really polarized here in either having a real monster or a marginal holding like JJ.
"Calling this standard would lose you a lot" This doesn't really make sense to me? How does this prove the bluff won't work enough of the time?
Flop: you dont have that many trips as preflop aggressor. OTT; you should at least check some TT-KK hnads for pot control. OTR, you wont bet that many single pairs for value when there is 4 to a straight and flushes out there, when villain can beat you easily. That also doesnt motivate him to bluffcatch with weaker as he can defend enough with stronger hands.
Villain has no intend to raise fullhouses oTT or OTF, same goes for most flushes because the SPR is shallow enough and he will never have a bluffing range when he jams OTT:
Flop I think can go either way.
The turn on second thought hit pretty hard his flop calling range, his FD got there, 76s got there, 99 got there, T9s won't fold, 77-66 won't fold either, you'd only make him fold worst hands.
XC might be good here, you have something like 9 spades + 3 A's + 2 non spade K minus some spades that give a boat some times., so you have something like 13outs, so I think you might have eq to call a ~75% PSB, and a big chunk of your range should be checking here, I think.
The main thing here is that he has the nuts more often that you do, you might have 78s, 98s, sometimes, but you don't have 99, 66. So that makes his range favourite against yours so checking the turn I think it makes sense.
Checking the turn might be better I agree, but if we decide to bet the turn should we follow up on this river in your opinion?
On this spot we should check almost all of our range, maybe 2c of 98s + 3c of 99 we should definetely shove and need like 2 or 3 combos of bluff and AK don't think is a good one.
All our flushes including our nut flushes I think we should check here.
A bit spewy imo.
What are we repping here?
Flop is fine, I'd x/c on turn and give up on rivers that don't improve us if faced w/ another bet.
The nut flush I think
Terrible play imo. This cant be +EV. Im c-betting 1/3 and XC the turn
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