1/3 Live Facing Flop Lead in 3b Pot - Range Construction
Posted by Ryan
Posted by Ryan posted in Mid Stakes
1/3 Live Facing Flop Lead in 3b Pot - Range Construction
Villain is a splashy recreational player who has bought in a couple times for 50bb or so. He is VPIPing super wide with limps and pretty splashy postflop. Haven't played with him too long, maybe an hour or two at this point, but haven't seem him showdown any raised hands or seen him raise much yet.
Anyways, Villain of interest raises to $15 in the HJ and has a $260 stack
CO is a splashy recreational as well and cold call with a $200 stack
Hero is on Button with QcQh and makes it $60
HJ calls, CO folds
Flop is ATx rainbow with $130 in middle
HJ leads into Hero for $75 and has $125 behind; he has his chips stacked on his cards, kinda seeming like he is willing to get the rest in.(don't know how much we can really read into this. First time playing with this guy)
Anyways, against random guy we haven't really played much against, what do you think about our flop play?
Also, how would you construct his leading range?
As you can see below, I was trying to imagine estimates and frequencies for what he may do with different parts of his range, but that quickly gets very messy. Do you think that in a 3B pot against an overly aggro recreational, his leads will tend to be on the loose side or made hand side? Do you think there's a chance this is very mergey and not very top pair+ oriented? Is there a way you would deconstruct what you think he will lead top pair and better with at a given frequency?
If we do continue flop, are we planning to call a turn jam as well?
EDIT: Giving this a little more thought, I suppose there's no way to know precisely what an unknown splashy player is doing. So I suppose the best thing for us to fall back on is MDF. Since he is risking around a 57% bet, we can defend around 60% of our range and make adujustments from there. QQ seems to be right on the cusp.
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