1/2 Live with big flush OTR vs donk bet on paired board.
Posted by Hoothoot
Posted by
Hoothoot
posted in
Mid Stakes
1/2 Live with big flush OTR vs donk bet on paired board.
None: Jon Doe: $0
So the live game I play in is extremely loose-passive, and the UTG villain in this particular hand is known for not giving a fuck, so his range is super duper wide. I'm not really sure about his bluffing frequency, but I assume it's quite low. Preflop he can put in a lot of money with weak hands, but post flop he seems to be more ABC.
My read in this hand is that he's obv strong when he donks flop, repping the usual sets, 2pairs, possibly TT. Also conceivable is A9, 9x, flush draws and combo draws like 4s5s, As2s etc, but those big draws are more likely to c/c or c/r imo. The spade scares him apparently but he c/c's. That pretty much rules out flushes, especially the nut flush. Then river pairs the board, and he leads. I was confused cause I don't really see 22, 33, or 99 being very likely here, but he hasn't got many flushes, and he doesn't really have any bluffs either. I guess 9x seems like a likely candidate, but the question is, do I beat enough of his value range to call here?
My read in this hand is that he's obv strong when he donks flop, repping the usual sets, 2pairs, possibly TT. Also conceivable is A9, 9x, flush draws and combo draws like 4s5s, As2s etc, but those big draws are more likely to c/c or c/r imo. The spade scares him apparently but he c/c's. That pretty much rules out flushes, especially the nut flush. Then river pairs the board, and he leads. I was confused cause I don't really see 22, 33, or 99 being very likely here, but he hasn't got many flushes, and he doesn't really have any bluffs either. I guess 9x seems like a likely candidate, but the question is, do I beat enough of his value range to call here?
Hero is in MP with KsQs. UTG straddles $5, folded around to me. Hero raises to $15, BTN calls, BB calls, straddle calls.
(Pot ~$60) Flop: 2s9d3s
BB checks, UTG bets $30, Hero calls, BTN folds, BB folds.
(Pot ~ $120) Turn 7s
UTG checks, Hero bets $55, UTG calls.
(Pot ~$230) River 9h
UTG bets $80.
Hero?
Loading 6 Comments...
Straddle to 2.5x? Never seen that before.
You should isolate bigger. The straddle is going to call almost every time anyway, and you really don't want to play a big pot OOP multiway.
Flop looks good. No need to raise now and possibly have to fold, or call it off against a set, which they can all have.
Bet bigger on the turn. I know that it's hard to estimate the potsize because it's just a heap of chips, and Villian will interpret a big bet as strength, but you should still bet a little bigger than you did.
The fact that the 7 is not an overcard to the 9 is really good for you. He will not fold 9x to a bigger bet, whereas he'd be more likely to fold on the As, in which case I'd bet smaller, to rep marginal holdings/scared bets/air.
His line makes sense with 22/33, and it's plausible he has 93/92. Despite the flush on the turn, I don't see him checking 97 too often. More likely he makes a small defensive bet.
I see him having close to zero bluffs, but you still should call here.
The pot odds are good. This could be a defensive bet, value bet with just 9x, or somehow a flush. From my experience, live players almost always check a set on boards like these.
Perfect reply, nothing to add!
Thanks.
You're a mod now? What does that entail?
I've only seen one post removed on this forum so far.
No, but seriously, as you mentioned, RIO has built up a great community - with a very high standard of quality and a nice athmosphere - and I´ll take my responsibility to keep it the best place to be for every poker player.
I think Chael broke it down rather nicely above. I call and feel really good about it
Don't forget to tune in and see me fight Shogun Rua tonight. :)
Be the first to add a comment