1/2 Live, river spot with JJ vs good player.
Posted by Hoothoot
Posted by
Hoothoot
posted in
Mid Stakes
1/2 Live, river spot with JJ vs good player.
One player limped UTG, I raised to $10 from EP with JJ, my friend called from LP, and the fish called from the BB. Limper folds. Pot ~$32.
Flop: 9h3d3c
BB checks, I c-bet $20, LP calls, BB calls. Pot ~$92.
Turn: 5d
BB goes all in for his last $10. I call, LP calls. Pot ~$122.
River: Qd
I check, LP bets $40. Hero?
This is a bit of a tough spot because I'm getting an excellent price to call with a hand that is at the very top of my bluff catching range, but at the same time villain hardly has any bluffs in his river betting range here. 9x has showdown value, so I expect him to check that back a large % of the time, especially because he can't necessarily expect me to call with A-high or w/e, and if I have 9x also, my 9x range is likely stronger than his is unless he has A9s (furthermore, I would expect him to fold most 9x combos vs my EP iso anyway). 77-88 have less, and 44-66 have even less SD value still, but those will only bluff a small percentage of the time as well, and probably less often given the dynamic between my friend and I. I also don't expect villain to turn 44-88 into bluffs very often because he likely expects my 9x, TT-JJ hands to call most of the time given that I'm getting 4:1 to call. Obv he's value betting 3x, but given that he's a TAG and he's flatting an EP iso from another TAG, he's extremely unlikely to have any 3x hands in his preflop calling range. Of course 99 would make sense, but I think he would probably raise a FH on the turn to get more money into the pot. The other possible hands that beat me are backdoor flushes that decided to float flop IP, but given that the river is Qd, every Qdxd flush combo is eliminated. Finally, Qx floats made a pair OTR, and that's not entirely unlikely given the extremely dry flop and the fact that villain likely to float occasionally when deep, and he can't really expect the BB to have hit this flop either (and even if he has, BB is now only like 20bb anyway).
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I guess you checked WITH the intention to x/f, right (anything else wouldn´t make sense). Then, after his tiny bet you decided that you´re probably getting too good a price so you re-evaluated your decision.
But I´d say it´s even more a reason to fold. Your friend knows that you´re not dumb. He probably knows that you´re not barreling with air into two players (lose short fish included) and he knows that you´ll be scared of the overcard with hands like JJ and he knows that you´ll likely have a hard time folding when he bets small and ...
Finally, there´s no sidepot! This means, it´s essentially absolutely senseless for your friend to bluff you off with A-high or stuff, because he´s likely losing the hand against the shorty, unlikely he has an even worse hand.
I´d muck and be happy about it.
Finally, I´d make it larger preflop (the shorty will come along anyways and you likely avoid multiway flops) and I had made it ~$28 on the flop.
curious to why u just flat the turn bet of $10 knowing that no way LP was ever folding and getting an excellent price to call with ATC HERE leaving u to play OOP on the river resulting in a spot like this when any over card floats/draws etc would put u in a tough spot.
I flatted turn mainly because I though a raise would fold out all worse hands and leave me vs all better hands, aka 3x, 99, 55. At the time, I was a little concerned with what LP was calling with so I wanted to keep the pot small when I'm OOP vs a good player. When I broke the hand down later on to make this post, I realized that LP has next to no 3x in his range if any, so I'm well ahead of his flop calling range. But at the time I was trying to be prudent so I just called.
given your description that Villain is decent player, i doubt he is flatting any 3X hand range, given the fact that there's a 25BB shortstacker in the pot(as stated above). Essentially, he doesnt have much IMplied odds with hand ranges like 33-77, and SC's type hands. given VIllains River bet sizing of $40, into $120, it's clearly not a bluff, since VIllain is giving you ridiculous odds to snap-bluffcatch him on this spot. I dont know how wide live players are thin value betting in this spot. Imo, if he has a strong Value range like Full-house on the river, he is more likely sizing the river bet to something like 2/3 pot size bet, thus making his river bet seem slightly weaker in terms of value range.
Furthermore, it's so hard to put VIllain on a BDFD type of hand range.
*) You have to realize the How the action proceeded on flop.
a 20BB Shortstacker Checks OOP, Hero bets 10BB in MP, and LP flats.
We have to realize that the EP shortstacker, has a perfect re-shipping stack size, so he is likely default C/R all-in on alot of flop board textures.
With that in mind, i doubt LP is floating many X(d)Y(d) type of hand ranges, or random QX. Given OP's description on VIllain, the only plausible hand that i could put him on is 9Qs....
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