1/2 Live, river spot with JJ vs good player.
Posted by Hoothoot
Posted by Hoothoot posted in Mid Stakes
1/2 Live, river spot with JJ vs good player.
One player limped UTG, I raised to $10 from EP with JJ, my friend called from LP, and the fish called from the BB. Limper folds. Pot ~$32.
Flop: 9h3d3c
BB checks, I c-bet $20, LP calls, BB calls. Pot ~$92.
Turn: 5d
BB goes all in for his last $10. I call, LP calls. Pot ~$122.
River: Qd
I check, LP bets $40. Hero?
This is a bit of a tough spot because I'm getting an excellent price to call with a hand that is at the very top of my bluff catching range, but at the same time villain hardly has any bluffs in his river betting range here. 9x has showdown value, so I expect him to check that back a large % of the time, especially because he can't necessarily expect me to call with A-high or w/e, and if I have 9x also, my 9x range is likely stronger than his is unless he has A9s (furthermore, I would expect him to fold most 9x combos vs my EP iso anyway). 77-88 have less, and 44-66 have even less SD value still, but those will only bluff a small percentage of the time as well, and probably less often given the dynamic between my friend and I. I also don't expect villain to turn 44-88 into bluffs very often because he likely expects my 9x, TT-JJ hands to call most of the time given that I'm getting 4:1 to call. Obv he's value betting 3x, but given that he's a TAG and he's flatting an EP iso from another TAG, he's extremely unlikely to have any 3x hands in his preflop calling range. Of course 99 would make sense, but I think he would probably raise a FH on the turn to get more money into the pot. The other possible hands that beat me are backdoor flushes that decided to float flop IP, but given that the river is Qd, every Qdxd flush combo is eliminated. Finally, Qx floats made a pair OTR, and that's not entirely unlikely given the extremely dry flop and the fact that villain likely to float occasionally when deep, and he can't really expect the BB to have hit this flop either (and even if he has, BB is now only like 20bb anyway).
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